[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 06 August 21 issued 2330 UT on 06 Aug 2021

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Aug 7 09:30:09 EST 2021 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 AUGUST 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 07 AUGUST - 09 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Aug:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Aug:  74/11


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             07 Aug             08 Aug             09 Aug
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    73/9               75/13              75/13

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 06 August. There 
are no significant active regions on the visible disc. Stereo 
A images show a region near N25 which should rotate onto the 
visible disc on 07 August. Solar activity is expected to be very 
low 07-09 August. There were no Earth directed CMEs observed 
in the available images over the last 24 hours. On UT day 06 
August, the solar wind speed range has been 282-329 km/s with 
an increasing trend since about 2100 UT. The peak IMF (Bt) was 
11 nT with a north-south IMF component (Bz) range of +5/-9 nT 
with Bz southward since 1335 UT. Solar wind parameters appear 
to show the influence of a coronal hole stream. The solar wind 
speed is expected to be mildly elevated on UT day 07 August due 
to coronal hole effects.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Aug: Quiet to unsettled

Estimated Indices 06 Aug : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   02012222
      Cocos Island         4   02111221
      Darwin               5   12112222
      Townsville           5   12012222
      Learmonth            8   12122332
      Alice Springs        4   02012222
      Gingin               6   01012332
      Canberra             5   02013221
      Hobart               5   02013222    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Aug :
      Macquarie Island     4   02013121
      Casey                7   13212222
      Mawson              20   12211365

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Aug : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              2   1000 0101     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
07 Aug    12    Quiet to Active. Chance of an isolated minor 
                storm period.
08 Aug     8    Quiet to Unsettled
09 Aug     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian and Antarctic 
regions were quiet to unsettled on UT day 06 August with storm 
levels late at Mawson. Global geomagnetic conditions are expected 
to be quiet to active today, with a chance of an isolated minor 
storm period due to coronal hole effects. Quiet to unsettled 
conditions are expected on 08-09 August.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Aug      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
08 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
09 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected 
on UT days, 07-09 August.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
06 Aug    13

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
      Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jul      17
Aug      25
Sep      28

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
07 Aug    20    Near predicted monthly values
08 Aug    15    Near predicted monthly values
09 Aug    15    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 06 August were 
near predicted monthly values with some mild depressions, mostly 
during local day. MUFs in the Australian region are expected 
to be near predicted monthly values on 07 to 09 August. Mild 
depressions possible during local day and early evening.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 05 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.6E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.00E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A5.4

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Aug
Speed: 300 km/sec  Density:    8.0 p/cc  Temp:    26700 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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