[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 05 August 21 issued 2330 UT on 05 Aug 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Aug 6 09:30:07 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 AUGUST 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 06 AUGUST - 08 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Aug: 74/11
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Aug 07 Aug 08 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 74/11 73/9 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 05 August. Currently
there are three numbered regions on the visible solar disk. Solar
activity is expected to be very low for 06-08 August, with a
chance of isolated C-class flares. A possible CME source was
noticed on SDO AIA304 starting at ~05/1420 UT from near N20E30.
The LASCO coronagraph images were unavailable around this event.
The STEREO A coronagraph images show some evidence of a CME being
triggered. More updates on this event will be provided later.
No other CMEs were observed in the coronagraph images during
the last 24 hours. On UT day 05 August, the solar wind speed
remained near its background levels; range was 290-320 km/s.
The IMF Bt component peaked at 7 nT. The IMF Bz range was -4/+4
nT. The solar wind speed is expected to increase later today
in response to the arrival of high-speed streams (HSS) from a
Northern Polar coronal hole with extensions into the low latitude
regions.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 05 Aug : A K
Australian Region 0 00000000
Cocos Island 0 10000000
Darwin 1 11000001
Townsville 0 00000001
Learmonth 0 10000010
Alice Springs 0 00000000
Gingin 0 00000010
Canberra 0 00000000
Hobart 0 00000000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Aug :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 1 01200010
Mawson 1 00000022
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 2221 0111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Aug 15 Unsettled to Active
07 Aug 8 Quiet to Unsettled
08 Aug 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian and Antarctic
regions were at quiet levels on UT day 05 August. Global geomagnetic
conditions are expected to be unsettled to active today, with
a chance of minor storms. The forecasted disturbed conditions
are due to possible arrival of the corotating interaction region
and subsequent high speed streams associated with the Northern
Polar coronal hole with extensions into low latitude regions.
Unsettled conditions are expected to continue on UT day 07 Aug.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Aug Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
07 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
08 Aug Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Some degraded propagation conditions are possible on
UT day 06 August due to the forecasted disturbed conditions.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Aug 12
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 17
Aug 25
Sep 28
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Aug 15 Near predicted monthly values
07 Aug 10 Near predicted monthly values
08 Aug 15 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 05 August were
mostly near predicted monthly values. Mild depressions were observed
over the low latitude regions. MUFs in the Australian region
are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values on UT
days 06 to 08 August. Some mild depressions are possible on UT
day 07 August due to the forecasted disturbed period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.2E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Aug
Speed: 331 km/sec Density: 9.4 p/cc Temp: 28800 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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