[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 15 April 21 issued 2330 UT on 15 Apr 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Apr 16 09:30:08 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 APRIL 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 16 APRIL - 18 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Apr: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Apr 17 Apr 18 Apr
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 74/11 74/11 74/11
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 15 April. There
are currently three spotted regions on the visible disk, AR 2814(S24W32)
and two new as yet unnumbered spot groups. Solar activity is
expected to be very low to low for the next three days, 16-18
April. No Earth directed CMEs were observed in the available
images up to 15/1645UT. On 15 April, a brief transient was observed
in solar wind parameters. The total IMF (Bt) was initially weak,
below 5nT but increased after 15/04UT to 10 nT while Bz deflected
south up to -7 nT between 15/04-06UT. The origin of this disturbance
is possibly related to a slow faint CME on 10 April. The solar
wind speed remained under 400 km/s. The solar wind speed is expected
to be enhanced over the next three days 16-18 April due to coronal
hole effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Apr: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 15 Apr : A K
Australian Region 9 23412211
Cocos Island 7 23312210
Darwin 9 23412211
Townsville 9 23422211
Learmonth 12 33512211
Alice Springs 9 23412211
Gingin 9 33412110
Canberra 7 23412100
Hobart 7 23411100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Apr :
Macquarie Island 7 22500000
Casey 12 34511100
Mawson 20 53622100
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 6 1101 1223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Apr 20 Quiet to active with a possible minor storm period.
17 Apr 20 Quiet to active with a possible minor storm period.
18 Apr 15 Quiet to active.
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 13 was issued on 14 April and
is current for 16 Apr only. Quiet to active geomagnetic conditions
were observed in the Australian region on UT day 15 April. The
active period was associated with the southward Bz between 15/04-06
UT. Storm levels were briefly observed in the Antarctic region.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to increase to Active levels
with a chance of an isolated minor storm period from late 16
April due to coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Apr Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
17 Apr Normal Fair Fair
18 Apr Normal Fair-normal Fair
COMMENT: Mildly degraded conditions may be observed on 17-18
April.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Apr 17
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 9
Apr 19
May 23
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Apr 10 Near predicted monthly values
17 Apr 0 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
18 Apr 0 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
COMMENT: MUFs over the Australian regions were mostly near predicted
monthly levels on UT day 15 April. Mild to moderate MUFs depressions
may be observed on 17-18 April due to anticipated increase in
geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.2E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Apr
Speed: 403 km/sec Density: 6.7 p/cc Temp: 104000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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