[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 16 April 21 issued 2330 UT on 16 Apr 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Apr 17 09:30:08 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 APRIL 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 17 APRIL - 19 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Apr: 77/16
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Apr 18 Apr 19 Apr
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 78/17 78/17 78/17
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 16 April. There
are currently three numbered regions on the visible disk, AR
2814, AR 2815, and AR 2816. Solar activity is expected to be
very low to low for the next three days, 17-19 April. No Earth
directed CMEs were observed in the available images up to 16/1548
UT. On 16 April, the solar wind speed was initially near 380
km/s. Near 16/1200 UT it reached 480 km/s due to anticipated
coronal hole effects. The total IMF (Bt) was near 5 nT at the
beginning of the UT day, then increased after 16/0200 UT to 7-12
nT while Bz was mostly negative during the UT day and reached
-10 nT after 16/1600 UT. The solar wind speed is expected to
remain enhanced over the next three UT days, 17-19 April, due
to coronal hole effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Apr: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 16 Apr : A K
Australian Region 13 23233243
Cocos Island 11 22222343
Darwin 11 23223242
Townsville 15 33333243
Learmonth 20 33333354
Alice Springs 11 22233242
Gingin 6 022231--
Canberra 12 22233342
Hobart 14 23233343
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Apr :
Macquarie Island 18 12334353
Casey 19 24522343
Mawson 51 23333486
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 3 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 20
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 10 2341 2212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Apr 20 Active
18 Apr 15 Unsettled to Active
19 Apr 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 14 was issued on 16 April and
is current for 17-18 Apr. Mostly quiet to active geomagnetic
conditions were observed in the Australian region on UT day 16
April. Quiet to storm levels were observed in the Antarctic region.
The observed increase in geomagnetic activity is due to coronal
hole effects. On 17 April and 18 April, geomagnetic activity
is expected to reach active levels with possible isolated minor
storm periods on 17 April.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Apr Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
18 Apr Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
19 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mildly degraded conditions may be observed on 17-18
April.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Apr 14
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 9
Apr 19
May 23
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Apr 0 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
18 Apr 0 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
19 Apr 4 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 11 was issued on 16 April
and is current for 17-18 Apr. MUFs over the Australian regions
were mostly near predicted monthly levels on UT day 16 April;
mild depressions were observed in the Northern Australian region
and moderate depressions were seen in the Southern Australian
region after local dawn. Mild to moderate MUFs depressions are
likely for 17-18 April due to the observed increase in geomagnetic
activity.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.3E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Apr
Speed: 366 km/sec Density: 11.7 p/cc Temp: 38600 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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