[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 14 April 21 issued 2330 UT on 14 Apr 2021
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Apr 15 09:30:52 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 APRIL 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 15 APRIL - 17 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Apr: 74/11
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Apr 16 Apr 17 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 74/11 74/11 74/11
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 14 April. There
is currently one numbered region on the visible disk, AR 2814(S24W18).
Solar activity is expected to be very low for the next three
days, 15-17 April with a slight chance of an isolated C-class
flare. No Earth directed CMEs were observed in the available
images. On 14 April, the solar wind speed peaked at 460 km/s,
with a peak total IMF (Bt) of 6 nT and a north-south IMF (Bz)
range of +/-4 nT. Solar wind speed is expected to be at background
levels until the arrival of CIR and HSS from an equatorial negative
polarity coronal hole late 16 April. Solar wind speed is expected
to remain enhanced on 17 April.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 14 Apr : A K
Australian Region 5 12122122
Cocos Island 4 12111122
Darwin 5 12122122
Townsville 5 12122122
Learmonth 6 22222122
Alice Springs 5 12122022
Gingin 4 22112111
Canberra 4 22012012
Hobart 3 12112002
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Apr :
Macquarie Island 1 01002001
Casey 6 23222111
Mawson 14 22111216
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6 1212 1212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Apr 7 Mostly quiet
16 Apr 20 Quiet to Active with the chance of an isolated
minor storm period.
17 Apr 15 Quiet to active.
COMMENT: Quiet conditions were observed in the Australian region
on UT day 14 April. Quiet to unsettled levels were observed in
the Antarctic region. Mostly quiet conditions are predicted for
15 April. Geomagnetic activity is expected to increase to Active
levels with a chance of an isolated minor storm period from late
16 April due to coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
16 Apr Normal Normal-fair Fair
17 Apr Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Mildly degraded conditions may be observed on 16-17
April.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Apr 9
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 9
Apr 19
May 23
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Apr 10 Near predicted monthly values
16 Apr 0 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
17 Apr 0 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
COMMENT: MUFs over the Australian regions were mostly near predicted
monthly levels on UT day 14 April, with mildly depressed MUFs
observed in Northern Australian region during the local day.
Mostly near predicted values are expected on 15 April. Mild to
moderate MUFs depressions may be observed on 16-17 April due
to anticipated increase in geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.2E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Apr
Speed: 359 km/sec Density: 8.4 p/cc Temp: 69500 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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