[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 28 September 20 issued 2337 UT on 28 Sep 2020
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Sep 29 09:37:41 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 SEPTEMBER 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 29 SEPTEMBER - 01 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Sep: 74/11
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Sep 30 Sep 01 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 74/11 74/11 74/11
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 28 September,
with no notable flares. There is one numbered region on the visible
disc, AR2773, currently at N30W05. No Earthbound CMEs were observed
in the available coronagraph data for the last 24 hours. On UT
day 28 September, the solar wind speed reached a maximum of 660
km/s at 28/0016 UT and is currently varying between 550-600 km/s.
The increase in solar wind speed was in response to a large Northern
Polar coronal hole. The total IMF (Bt) varied between 2-8 nT
and is currently around 7 nT. The north-south component of the
IMF (Bz) varied between +/-6 nT but was mainly southward. Solar
wind parameters are expected to remain at these high levels for
UT day 29 September, then begin to decrease on UT days 30 September
to 1 October as the coronal hole effect begins to wane.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Sep: Unsettled to
Active
Estimated Indices 28 Sep : A K
Australian Region 16 33334333
Cocos Island 12 23224332
Darwin 12 32234223
Townsville 18 33344333
Learmonth 18 33344333
Alice Springs 16 33334333
Gingin 19 33344433
Canberra 15 33333333
Hobart 18 33344333
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Sep :
Macquarie Island 42 44466544
Casey 19 44433333
Mawson 55 55444576
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 6 (Quiet)
Learmonth 8 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 2 (Quiet)
Gingin 46 (Unsettled)
Canberra 67 (Active)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 25
Planetary 38
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 26 3422 1365
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Sep 29 Active, with chance of Minor Storm periods
30 Sep 24 Unsettled to Active
01 Oct 16 Quiet to Unsettled, with chance of isolated Active
periods
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 7 was issued on 28 September
and is current for 28-29 Sep. Unsettled to Active conditions
were observed in the Australian region and Active to Major storm
levels occurred in the Antarctic region on UT day 28 September.
These disturbed conditions were in response to the high solar
wind speed emanating from a Northern Polar coronal hole and southward
IMF Bz conditions. Global conditions are expected to be at Active
levels with a chance of Minor Storm levels on UT day 29 September
as the coronal hole effects persist. Unsettled to Active conditions
are expected on UT day 30 September, decreasing to Quiet to Unsettled
with a chance of isolated Active periods, UT day 01 October.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Sep Fair Fair-poor Poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Sep Fair Fair Fair-poor
30 Sep Normal Normal-fair Fair
01 Oct Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Fair to Poor HF propagation conditions are expected
for UT day 29 September, then Normal to Fair on UT days 30 September
and 01 October.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Sep -13
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 6
Sep -13
Oct -14
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Sep -10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed -10 to
-20%
30 Sep -10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed -10 to
-20%
01 Oct -10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region were generally near predicted
monthly values on UT day 28 September, with some areas experiencing
periods of minor to moderate depressions. MUFs in the Australian
region are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values
for next 3 UT days, 29 September to 01 October, with a chance
of some periods of minor MUF degradations due to the current
disturbed geomagnetic conditions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.10E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:19%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Sep
Speed: 514 km/sec Density: 7.5 p/cc Temp: 322000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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