[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 27 September 20 issued 2331 UT on 27 Sep 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Sep 28 09:31:31 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 SEPTEMBER 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 28 SEPTEMBER - 30 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Sep: 74/11
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Sep 29 Sep 30 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 72/8 72/8
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 27 September,
with no notable flares. There is one numbered region on the visible
disc, AR2773, currently at N30E07. No Earthbound CMEs were observed
in the available coronagraph data for the last 24 hours. On UT
day 27 September, the solar wind speed was mostly steady near
500 km/s till 27/1600 UT and thereon gradually increased to 620
km/s. The increase in solar wind speed is possibly in response
to the second larger Northern Polar coronal hole reaching geoeffective
location on the solar disk. For the total IMF (Bt) and its north-south
component (Bz), the ranges were 4-10 nT and +5/-8 nT, respectively.
Bz was mostly southward through the UT day and strongly southward
between 27/1700 to 27/2100 UT. Solar wind parameters are expected
to remain at these high levels for most of today and tomorrow
(UT day 28 - 29 September). The solar wind is expected to decline
from late UT day 29 September as the coronal hole effect begins
to wane.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 27 Sep : A K
Australian Region 10 22222333
Cocos Island 7 12111233
Darwin 8 22122233
Townsville 12 23223333
Learmonth 12 22213334
Alice Springs 8 22212233
Gingin 13 22123344
Canberra 9 12122333
Hobart 11 22222343
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Sep :
Macquarie Island 21 23233553
Casey 16 34432233
Mawson 55 45433485
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 9 (Quiet)
Canberra 7 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 20
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 18
Planetary 22 4544 5213
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Sep 16 Active
29 Sep 12 Unsettled
30 Sep 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet to unsettled conditions were observed in the Australian
region. Unsettled to major storm levels occurred in the Antarctic
region on UT day 27 September. These disturbed conditions were
in response to the high solar wind speed emanating from the second
Northern Polar coronal hole and southward IMF Bz conditions.
Global conditions are expected to be mostly unsettled to active
today (28 September) as the coronal hole effects persist. Mostly
quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on UT day 29 and 30
September, with isolated chance of active periods. Aurora may
be visible tonight (28 September) from Tasmania and Southern
parts of Victoria.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Sep Normal Fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Sep Normal Normal-fair Fair
29 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
30 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Normal to fair HF propagation conditions are expected
for 28-30 September.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Sep -2
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
No data available .
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 6
Sep -13
Oct -14
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Sep -10 Near predicted monthly values
29 Sep -5 Near predicted monthly values
30 Sep -5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region were generally near predicted
monthly to moderately enhanced levels on UT day 27 September.
MUFs in the Australian region are expected to be mostly near
predicted monthly values on 28-30 September, with a chance of
some minor MUF degradations due to the current disturbed geomagnetic
conditions.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Sep
Speed: 535 km/sec Density: 9.1 p/cc Temp: 345000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of SWS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list