[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 26 September 20 issued 2331 UT on 26 Sep 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Sep 27 09:31:30 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 SEPTEMBER 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 27 SEPTEMBER - 29 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Sep: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Sep: 73/9
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Sep 28 Sep 29 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 72/8 72/8
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 26 September.
There is one numbered region on the visible disc, 2773 (currently
at N30E20). This region produced a weak C-class flare, C1 at
26/0038 UT. Very low levels of solar activity are expected for
27-29 September. No Earthbound CMEs were observed in the available
coronagraph data during the last 24 hours. The solar wind speed
ranged between 500 and 580 km/s, currently near 500 km/s. This
moderately elevated solar wind speed is in response to a Northern
Polar coronal hole. For the total IMF (Bt) and its north-south
component (Bz) the ranges were 3-9 nT and +8/-8 nT, respectively;
Bz was mostly negative. Solar wind parameters are expected to
remain elevated for most of today (UT day 27 September). From
late UT day 27 September, the solar wind is expected to enhance
further to high level as another larger Northern Polar coronal
hole with extension into the equatorial region is expected to
reach the geoeffective location on the solar disk. The high solar
wind speeds are expected to continue on UT days 28-29 September
in response to the coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Sep: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 26 Sep : A K
Australian Region 13 22244322
Cocos Island 7 12133212
Darwin 8 22233212
Townsville 16 32344323
Learmonth 15 32244323
Alice Springs 11 22243322
Gingin 15 23244323
Canberra 15 23344322
Hobart 14 23344312
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Sep :
Macquarie Island 40 34476412
Casey 14 33343223
Mawson 44 65434456
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 4 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 2 (Quiet)
Gingin 9 (Quiet)
Canberra 3 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 18
Planetary 25
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 17
Planetary 18 3333 1444
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Sep 25 Active
28 Sep 20 Active
29 Sep 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 6 was issued on 25 September
and is current for 26-27 Sep. Quiet to active conditions were
observed in the Australian region and mostly quiet to major storm
levels in the Antarctic region on UT day 26 September. Global
conditions are expected to be mostly unsettled to active on 27-28
September due to coronal hole effects. There is a chance of isolated
minor to major storm periods during these two days. Aurora may
be visible on the local nights on 27 and 28 September from Tasmania
and Southern parts of Victoria. Mostly unsettled conditions are
expected on UT day 29 September with isolated chance of active
periods.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Sep Fair Fair Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Sep Fair Fair Fair-poor
28 Sep Normal Normal-fair Fair
29 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Normal to fair HF propagation conditions are expected
for 27-29 September.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Sep -0
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 6
Sep -13
Oct -14
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Sep -10 Near predicted monthly values
28 Sep -10 Near predicted monthly values
29 Sep -5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region were generally near predicted
monthly to moderately enhanced levels on UT day 26 September.
Antarctic MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values. MUFs
in the Australian region are expected to be mostly near predicted
monthly values on 27-29 September, with a chance of some minor
MUF degradations due to the current disturbed geomagnetic conditions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Sep
Speed: 484 km/sec Density: 8.5 p/cc Temp: 282000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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