[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 25 September 20 issued 2331 UT on 25 Sep 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Sep 26 09:31:38 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 SEPTEMBER 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 26 SEPTEMBER - 28 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Sep: 73/9
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Sep 27 Sep 28 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 73/9 73/9 73/9
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 25 September.
There is one numbered region on the visible disc, 2773 (currently
at N30E32). No returning active regions are expected. No Earthbound
CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph data. The solar
wind speed ranged between 460 and 510 km/s, currently near 480
km/s. For the total IMF (Bt) and its north-south component (Bz)
the ranges were 3-8 nT and +2/-6 nT, respectively; Bz was mostly
negative. Very low levels of solar activity are expected for
26-28 September. Solar wind parameters are expected to be elevated
during 26-28 September in response to coronal hole effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Sep: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 25 Sep : A K
Australian Region 12 22332423
Cocos Island 6 11222312
Darwin 11 22332412
Townsville 12 22332423
Learmonth 14 21332523
Alice Springs 11 12332413
Gingin 11 21232423
Canberra 10 12232422
Hobart 12 12332423
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Sep :
Macquarie Island 15 11343512
Casey 16 33432423
Mawson 59 65333667
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 6 (Quiet)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 18
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 18 3353 4402
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Sep 15 Unsettled to Active
27 Sep 20 Active
28 Sep 20 Active
COMMENT: Quiet to active conditions were observed in the Australian
region and mostly quiet to major storm levels in the Antarctic
region on UT day 25 September. Global conditions are expected
to be mostly unsettled with isolated active periods on 26 September
and unsettled to active on 27-28 September due to coronal hole
effects. There is a chance of isolated minor storm periods for
all three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Sep Normal Normal-fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
27 Sep Normal Normal-fair Fair
28 Sep Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Normal to fair HF propagation conditions are expected
for 26-28 September.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Sep -6
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 6
Sep -13
Oct -14
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Sep -10 Near predicted monthly values
27 Sep -5 Near predicted monthly values
28 Sep -5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 4 was issued on 25 September
and is current for 25-26 Sep. MUFs in the Australian region were
generally near predicted monthly values during daytime and enhanced
through the night on UT day 25 September. Antarctic MUFs were
mostly near predicted monthly values. MUFs in the Australian
region are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values
on 26-28 September.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Sep
Speed: 482 km/sec Density: 8.2 p/cc Temp: 257000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
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