[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 29 September 20 issued 2334 UT on 29 Sep 2020
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Sep 30 09:34:21 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 SEPTEMBER 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 30 SEPTEMBER - 02 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Sep: 73/9
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Sep 01 Oct 02 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 74/11 74/11 74/11
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 29 September.
There is one numbered region on the visible disc, AR2773, currently
at N30W17. No Earthbound CMEs were observed in the available
coronagraph data for the last 24 hours. On UT day 29 September,
the solar wind speed started high, reaching up to 670 km/s for
a short period, then gradually declined, currently varying between
550-600 km/s. The increase in solar wind speed was in response
to a large Northern Polar coronal hole. The total IMF (Bt) started
the UT day varying between 6-7 nT then decreased, currently around
4 nT. The north-south component of the IMF (Bz) started varying
between +/-6 nT, then decreased, currently varying between -4
to +3 nT. Solar wind parameters are expected to continue to decrease
on UT days 30 September to 2 October as the coronal hole effect
wanes.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 29 Sep : A K
Australian Region 11 32233322
Cocos Island 7 21123321
Darwin 7 22232212
Townsville 11 32233322
Learmonth 12 32333322
Alice Springs 10 31233312
Gingin 11 32233322
Canberra 8 31232212
Hobart 11 32333312
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Sep :
Macquarie Island 22 32346421
Casey 21 45433323
Mawson 45 35543566
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 71 (Active)
Canberra 46 (Unsettled)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 28
Planetary 38
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 21
Planetary 31 5543 3444
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Sep 20 Unsettled to Active
01 Oct 12 Quiet to Unsettled, with chance of isolated Active
periods
02 Oct 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled conditions were observed in the Australian
region and Unsettled to Major storm levels occurred in the Antarctic
region on UT day 29 September. These disturbed conditions were
in response to the high solar wind speed emanating from a Northern
Polar coronal hole. Global conditions are expected to be at Unsettled
to Active levels on UT day 30 September as coronal hole conditions
persist, decreasing to Quiet to Unsettled conditions on UT days
01-02 October, with a chance of isolated Active periods on UT
day 01 October.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Sep Fair Fair-poor Poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Sep Normal Normal-fair Fair
01 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
02 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Normal to Fair HF propagation conditions are expected
for UT days 30 September to 02 October.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Sep -16
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 6
Sep -13
Oct -14
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Sep -13 Near predicted monthly values/depressed -10 to
-20%
01 Oct -13 Near predicted monthly values/depressed -10 to
-20%
02 Oct -10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region were generally near predicted
monthly values on UT day 29 September, with some areas experiencing
periods of minor depressions during the local day. The Cocos
Island region experienced moderate depressions during the local
day. MUFs in the Australian region are expected to be mostly
near predicted monthly values for next 2 UT days, 30 September
to 01 October, with a chance of some periods of minor MUF degradations
due to the recent disturbed geomagnetic conditions, returning
to mostly near predicted monthly values by 02 October.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:18%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Sep
Speed: 584 km/sec Density: 8.1 p/cc Temp: 595000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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