[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 20 September 20 issued 2331 UT on 20 Sep 2020

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Sep 21 09:31:31 EST 2020 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 SEPTEMBER 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 21 SEPTEMBER - 23 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Sep:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Sep:  70/5


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             21 Sep             22 Sep             23 Sep
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low on UT day 20 September. 
The Sun is currently spotless with no numbered regions on the 
visible disc. No returning regions are expected. No earthward 
directed CMEs were visible in the available coronagraph images. 
Very Low levels of solar activity are expected for the next three 
UT days, 21-23 September. On UT day 20 September, the solar wind 
speed varied between 270-300 km/s for most of the day until it 
started to increase after 20/2200 UT and is currently around 
320 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) started the day varying between 
1-2 nT, then started increasing after 20/0800 UT, currently around 
9 nT. The north-south component of IMF (Bz) varied between +6 
and -5 nT. For the next three UT days, 21-23 September, the solar 
wind parameters are expected to be mostly near background levels 
but may become weakly enhanced at times due to a few small and 
weak equatorial coronal holes.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Sep: Quiet

Estimated Indices 20 Sep : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   01022101
      Cocos Island         1   00111001
      Darwin               3   01122102
      Townsville           5   11132111
      Learmonth            4   01032102
      Alice Springs        2   00022101
      Gingin               3   00022102
      Canberra             2   00021101
      Hobart               2   01022101    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Sep :
      Macquarie Island     0   00001000
      Casey                5   12221112
      Mawson              10   01121135

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Sep : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              3   0111 0100     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
21 Sep     6    Quiet, with a chance of isolated Unsettled periods
22 Sep     6    Quiet, with a chance of isolated Unsettled periods
23 Sep     6    Quiet, with a chance of isolated Unsettled periods

COMMENT: Mainly Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed in 
the Australian region on UT day 20 September, with an isolated 
Unsettled period observed at some sites. The Antarctic region 
observed mainly Quiet conditions, with Mawson station observing 
an Unsettled to Minor Storm period late in the UT day. Global 
geomagnetic conditions are expected to be mostly Quiet, with 
a chance of isolated Unsettled periods, during the next three 
UT days, 21-23 September.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
22 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
23 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Normal HF propagation conditions are expected for the 
next three UT days, 21-23 September.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
20 Sep    -4

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Aug      6
Sep      -13
Oct      -14

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
21 Sep    -5    Near predicted monthly values
22 Sep    -5    Near predicted monthly values
23 Sep    -5    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian and Antarctic regions were mostly 
near predicted monthly values to mildly enhanced on UT day 20 
September. MUFs in the Cocos Island Region were mildly enhanced 
during the local day and mildly depressed during the local night. 
MUFs in the Australian region are expected to be mostly near 
predicted monthly values on UT days 21-23 September.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 19 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.2E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Sep
Speed: 314 km/sec  Density:    3.3 p/cc  Temp:    19200 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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