[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 21 September 20 issued 2331 UT on 21 Sep 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Sep 22 09:31:35 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 SEPTEMBER 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 22 SEPTEMBER - 24 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Sep: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Sep 23 Sep 24 Sep
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 71/6 72/8 74/11
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 21 September.
The visible solar disc is currently spotless with no numbered
regions. The likely source of an increase in x-ray flux is now
rotating onto the visible disc near N30. No earthward directed
CMEs were visible in the available coronagraph images. Solar
wind parameters on 21 September have been near background levels
with wind speed below 335 km/s and total magnetic field strength
(Bt) range 4 to 9 nT. The north-south IMF component (Bz) was
mostly northward and varied between +7 and -5 nT. Very low to
low levels of solar activity are expected for the next three
UT days, 22-24 September. Solar wind parameters are expected
to be mostly near background levels 22 September. Parameters
are likely to start becoming enhanced on 23 September due to
an extension of the northern polar coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 21 Sep : A K
Australian Region 1 11010011
Cocos Island 1 11100010
Darwin 2 12010012
Townsville 3 22110011
Learmonth 1 11010011
Alice Springs 2 12010011
Gingin 1 11000001
Canberra 1 11000001
Hobart 1 11000001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Sep :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 5 32210012
Mawson 6 22010024
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 3 0001 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Sep 7 Quiet
23 Sep 10 Quiet to Unsettled
24 Sep 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Mainly quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed in
the Australian and Antarctic regions on UT day 21 September.
Global geomagnetic conditions are expected to be quiet to unsettled
on 22 to 23 September. Coronal hole activity is expected to result
in active periods on 24 September.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Sep Normal Normal Normal
23 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
24 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next three UT days, 22 to 24 September.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Sep -3
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 80% during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 6
Sep -13
Oct -14
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Sep 0 Near predicted monthly values
23 Sep 0 Near predicted monthly values
24 Sep 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian and Antarctic regions were near
predicted monthly values to mildly enhanced on UT day 21 September.
MUFs in the Australian region are expected to be mostly near
predicted monthly values to mildly enhanced 22 to 24 September.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.9E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Sep
Speed: 292 km/sec Density: 6.6 p/cc Temp: 13100 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
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