[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 19 September 20 issued 2331 UT on 19 Sep 2020

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Sep 20 09:31:33 EST 2020 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 SEPTEMBER 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 20 SEPTEMBER - 22 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Sep:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Sep:  71/6


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             20 Sep             21 Sep             22 Sep
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low on UT day 19 September. 
The Sun is currently spotless with no numbered regions on the 
visible disc. No returning regions are expected. No earthward 
directed CMEs were visible in the available coronagraph images. 
Very Low levels of solar activity are expected for the next three 
UT days, 20-22 September. On UT day 19 September, the solar wind 
speed varied between 310-330 km/s in the first half of the day, 
then decreased to a minimum of 274 km/s, currently around 290 
km/s. The total IMF (Bt) varied between 1-4 nT, and the north-south 
component of IMF (Bz) was in the range +2/-3 nT. For the next 
three UT days, 20-22 September, the solar wind parameters are 
expected to be mostly near background levels but may become weakly 
enhanced at times due to a few small and weak equatorial coronal 
holes.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Sep: Quiet

Estimated Indices 19 Sep : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11100100
      Cocos Island         1   11100100
      Darwin               2   12100101
      Townsville           2   22110100
      Learmonth            1   11100100
      Alice Springs        1   11100100
      Gingin               1   11100110
      Canberra             0   11000000
      Hobart               1   11100000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Sep :
      Macquarie Island     0   00010000
      Casey                5   23210220
      Mawson               9   23210333

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Sep : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              3   1000 2110     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
20 Sep     6    Quiet, with a chance of isolated Unsettled periods
21 Sep     6    Quiet, with a chance of isolated Unsettled periods
22 Sep     6    Quiet, with a chance of isolated Unsettled periods

COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian 
region on UT day 19 September. The Antarctic region observed 
Quiet to Unsettled conditions. Global geomagnetic conditions 
are expected to be mostly Quiet, with a chance of isolated Unsettled 
periods, during the next three UT days, 20-22 September.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
21 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
22 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Normal HF propagation conditions are expected for the 
next three UT days, 20-22 September.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
19 Sep    -5

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Aug      6
Sep      -13
Oct      -14

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
20 Sep    -5    Near predicted monthly values
21 Sep    -5    Near predicted monthly values
22 Sep    -5    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian and Antarctic regions were mostly 
near predicted monthly values to mildly enhanced on UT day 19 
September. MUFs in the Australian region are expected to be mostly 
near predicted monthly values on UT days 20-22 September.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 18 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.20E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Sep
Speed: 303 km/sec  Density:    6.8 p/cc  Temp:    22200 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of SWS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.

More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list