[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 18 September 20 issued 2331 UT on 18 Sep 2020

Sat Sep 19 09:31:38 EST 2020

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 SEPTEMBER 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 19 SEPTEMBER - 21 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Sep:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Sep:  70/5

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             19 Sep             20 Sep             21 Sep
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low on UT day 18 September. 
The Sun is currently spotless with no numbered regions on the 
visible disc. No returning regions are expected. No earthward 
directed CMEs were visible in the available coronagraph images. 
Very Low levels of solar activity are expected for the next three 
UT days, 19-21 September. On UT day 18 September, the solar wind 
speed varied between 280 km/s and 330 km/s, the total IMF (Bt) 
varied between 1-8 nT, and the north-south component of IMF (Bz) 
was in the range +6/-5 nT. For the next three UT days, 19-21 
September, the solar wind parameters are expected to be mostly 
near background levels but may become weakly enhanced at times 
due to a few small and weak equatorial coronal holes.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Sep: Quiet

Estimated Indices 18 Sep : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11002110
      Cocos Island         2   10002120
      Darwin               3   11102121
      Townsville           3   11002221
      Learmonth            2   21002110
      Alice Springs        2   11002110
      Gingin               2   20002110
      Canberra             1   10002010
      Hobart               1   10002000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Sep :
      Macquarie Island     0   00001000
      Casey                4   23211100
      Mawson               7   33112220

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Sep : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              4   1021 1011     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
19 Sep     6    Quiet, with a chance of isolated Unsettled periods
20 Sep     6    Quiet, with a chance of isolated Unsettled periods
21 Sep     6    Quiet, with a chance of isolated Unsettled periods

COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian 
region on UT day 18 September. The Antarctic region observed 
Quiet to Unsettled conditions. Global geomagnetic conditions 
are expected to be mostly Quiet, with a chance of isolated Unsettled 
periods, during the next three UT days, 19-21 September.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
20 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
21 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values to mildly 
enhanced on UT day 18 September. MUFs are expected to be mostly 
near predicted monthly values on UT days 19-21 September.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
18 Sep    -4

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Aug      6
Sep      -13
Oct      -14

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
19 Sep     0    Near predicted monthly values
20 Sep     0    Near predicted monthly values
21 Sep     0    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian and Antarctic regions were mostly 
near predicted monthly values to mildly enhanced on UT day 18 
September. MUFs in the Australian region are expected to be mostly 
near predicted monthly values on UT days 19-21 September.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 17 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.2E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Sep
Speed: 308 km/sec  Density:    6.1 p/cc  Temp:    18900 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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