[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 12 September 20 issued 2338 UT on 12 Sep 2020

Sun Sep 13 09:38:57 EST 2020

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 SEPTEMBER 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 13 SEPTEMBER - 15 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Sep:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Sep:  69/3

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             13 Sep             14 Sep             15 Sep
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    69/3               69/3               69/3

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for 12Sep. There are currently 
no numbered regions on the visible solar disk and no earth-directed 
CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph imagery over 
the last 24 hours. Solar wind speed was near ambient levels ranging 
between 300km/s to 350km/s and is currently 338km/s at the time 
of this report. The north-south component of the IMF (Bz) ranged 
between +/-5nT with minor sustained southward periods between 
05UT-09UT and 18UT-20UT. With no significant coronal hole features 
on the visible disc or any recent CME's, solar wind speed is 
expected to remain at ambient levels over the next 3 days. Solar 
activity is also expected to remain Very Low for 13Sep-15Sep.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Sep: Quiet

Estimated Indices 12 Sep : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11110111
      Cocos Island         2   11110110
      Darwin               2   11110101
      Townsville           3   11120111
      Learmonth            2   01210111
      Alice Springs        1   01110101
      Gingin               2   01110121
      Canberra             2   11210100
      Hobart               2   01210100    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Sep :
      Macquarie Island     4   00420000
      Mawson              18   33221255

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Sep : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              3   0011 1011     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
13 Sep     5    Quiet
14 Sep     5    Quiet
15 Sep     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions observed for the Australian 
region for 12Sep and mostly Quiet to Unsettled conditions for 
Antarctic regions. Global Geomagnetic conditions are expected 
to be mostly Quiet for the next 3 days.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
14 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
15 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were mostly near predicted 
monthly values for 12Sep. Similar levels of enhanced ionospheric 
support expected for the next 3 days.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
12 Sep     3

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Aug      6
Sep      -13
Oct      -14

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
13 Sep     0    Near predicted monthly values
14 Sep     0    Near predicted monthly values
15 Sep     0    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum User Frequencies were near predicted monthly 
values across all regions with occasional enhancements for Northern 
AUS and Southern AUS/NZ regions. Similar levels of ionospheric 
support are expected over the next 3 days with MUFs expected 
to be near predicted monthly values.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 11 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Sep
Speed: 286 km/sec  Density:    9.7 p/cc  Temp:    13900 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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