[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 13 September 20 issued 2333 UT on 13 Sep 2020

Mon Sep 14 09:33:32 EST 2020

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 SEPTEMBER 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 14 SEPTEMBER - 16 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Sep:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Sep:  70/5

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             14 Sep             15 Sep             16 Sep
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day, 13 September. 
The Sun is currently spotless with no numbered regions on the 
visible disc. No returning regions expected. SDO 304 images show 
a filament lifting from S34W50 at ~0548 UT. No CMEs were visible 
in the available coronagraph images. Solar wind speed remained 
below 350 km/s on 13 September. The total IMF (Bt) reached 7 
nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was 3 to -7 nT 
with mild sustained southward Bz since ~1915 UT. Very low solar 
activity is predicted for 14 to 16 September. Solar wind parameters 
are expected to be mostly near background levels over the next 
three days.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 13 Sep : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   01200213
      Cocos Island         4   11100213
      Darwin               4   11200213
      Townsville           3   11200212
      Learmonth            4   01200213
      Alice Springs        3   01200212
      Gingin               2   00100103
      Canberra             2   00200112
      Hobart               3   01210112    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Sep :
      Macquarie Island     1   00200001
      Mawson              24   22222317

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Sep : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6   2132 1011     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
14 Sep    10    Quiet to Unsettled
15 Sep     7    Quiet
16 Sep     7    Quiet

COMMENT: Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions observed in 
the Australian and Antarctic regions on 13 September with late 
storm levels at Mawson. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to 
be mostly quiet on 14 to 16 September with isolated unsettled 
periods 14 September.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
15 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
16 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal conditions are expected 14 to 16 September.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
13 Sep     3

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 70% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Aug      6
Sep      -13
Oct      -14

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
14 Sep     0    Near predicted monthly values
15 Sep     0    Near predicted monthly values
16 Sep     0    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian and Antarctic regions were mostly 
near predicted monthly values to moderately enhanced on 13 September. 
Sporadic E observed at 12-13 UT and spread F 14-16 UT at Darwin. 
MUFs in the Australian region are expected to be mostly near 
predicted monthly values on 14-16 September.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 12 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.60E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Sep
Speed: 324 km/sec  Density:    7.7 p/cc  Temp:    32700 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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