[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 11 September 20 issued 2341 UT on 11 Sep 2020

Sat Sep 12 09:41:44 EST 2020

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 SEPTEMBER 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 12 SEPTEMBER - 14 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Sep:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Sep:  69/3

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             12 Sep             13 Sep             14 Sep
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    69/3               69/3               69/3

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for 11Sep. There are currently 
no numbered regions on the visible solar disk and no earth-directed 
CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph imagery. Solar 
wind speed was near background levels, beginning the UT day at 
292km/s and remained relatively unchanged until a slight increase 
at 15UT to be 311km/s at the time of this report. The north-south 
component of the IMF (Bz) ranged between +3/-4nT. Solar wind 
speed is expected to remain at ambient levels over the next 3 
days and and solar activity is expected to remain Very Low.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Sep: Quiet

Estimated Indices 11 Sep : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   01100010
      Cocos Island         1   11100010
      Darwin               1   11100011
      Townsville           1   01100011
      Learmonth            1   11100010
      Alice Springs        0   00000001
      Gingin               0   00000010
      Canberra             0   00000010
      Hobart               0   00000010    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Sep :
      Macquarie Island     0   00000000
      Mawson              11   21100154

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Sep : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              3                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              2   1000 1111     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
12 Sep     5    Quiet
13 Sep     5    Quiet
14 Sep     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions over the last 24 hours have been 
Quiet for the Australian region and mostly Quiet to isolated 
Active periods for Antarctic regions. Global Geomagnetic conditions 
are expected to be mostly Quiet for the next 3 days.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
13 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
14 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were mostly near predicted 
monthly values for 11Sep. Similar levels of enhanced ionospheric 
support expected for the next 3 days.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
11 Sep    -3

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Aug      6
Sep      -13
Oct      -14

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
12 Sep    -5    Near predicted monthly values
13 Sep    -5    Near predicted monthly values
14 Sep    -5    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum User Frequencies were near predicted monthly 
values across all regions with occasional enhancements for Equatorial 
and Southern AUS/NZ regions. Similar levels of ionospheric support 
are expected over the next 3 days with MUFs expected to be near 
predicted monthly values.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 10 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Sep
Speed: 288 km/sec  Density:    4.8 p/cc  Temp:    19400 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Bureau of Meteorology
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