[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 10 September 20 issued 2331 UT on 10 Sep 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Sep 11 09:31:32 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 SEPTEMBER 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 11 SEPTEMBER - 13 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Sep: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Sep 12 Sep 13 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 10 September.
There are currently no numbered regions on the visible solar
disk. Very low levels of solar activity are expected for the
next three UT days, 11-13 September. No Earth-directed CMEs were
observed in the coronagraph imagery. During 10 September, the
solar wind speed was near its background levels, varying in the
range 270-300 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) and the north-south IMF
component (Bz) varied in the ranges 3-5 nT and +5/-4 nT, respectively.
During the next three UT days, 11-13 September, the solar wind
speed is expected to remain near its background levels.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 10 Sep : A K
Australian Region 1 01100001
Cocos Island 0 01100000
Darwin 1 01100002
Townsville 1 11100001
Learmonth 1 11100000
Alice Springs 1 01100001
Gingin 1 01100010
Canberra 0 01000000
Hobart 0 01100000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Sep :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Mawson 4 10100133
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 3 1001 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Sep 3 Quiet
12 Sep 3 Quiet
13 Sep 3 Quiet
COMMENT: During UT day 10 September, geomagnetic conditions were
quiet in the Australian and Antarctic regions. Global geomagnetic
conditions are expected to be mostly quiet during the next three
UT days, 11-13 September.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Sep Normal Normal Normal
12 Sep Normal Normal Normal
13 Sep Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next three UT days, 11-13 September.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Sep -1
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 55% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 6
Sep -13
Oct -14
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Sep 0 Near predicted monthly values
12 Sep 0 Near predicted monthly values
13 Sep 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: On UT day 10 September, MUFs in the Australian and Antarctic
regions were mostly near predicted monthly to mildly enhanced
values. Sporadic E and Spread F were observed over some sites.
MUFs in the Australian region are expected to be mostly near
predicted monthly values on UT days 11-13 September.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:13%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Sep
Speed: 302 km/sec Density: 5.3 p/cc Temp: 22200 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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