[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 05 September 20 issued 2331 UT on 05 Sep 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Sep 6 09:31:25 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 SEPTEMBER 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 06 SEPTEMBER - 08 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Sep: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Sep 07 Sep 08 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 05 September.
There are currently no numbered regions on the visible solar
disk. Very low levels of solar activity are expected for the
next three UT days, 06-08 September. Several small filaments
over the northern hemisphere are monitored for any lift off.
A CME first observed in the LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery starting
at 05/0624 UT is a far-side event and therefore will not impact
Earth. During 05 September, the solar wind speed was in the range
380 km/s to 440 km/s, currently around 430 km/s. The total IMF
(Bt) and the north-south IMF component (Bz) varied mostly in
the ranges 2-5 nT and +4/-5 nT, respectively. IMF Bz was predominantly
southwards, though weakly, between 05/0600 UT and 05/1100 UT.
The three day outlook (06-08 September) is for the solar wind
speed to be mostly near its background levels.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 05 Sep : A K
Australian Region 3 11222010
Cocos Island 1 00120010
Darwin 2 11112001
Townsville 5 11232011
Learmonth 3 11222010
Alice Springs 2 11122000
Gingin 4 01132020
Canberra 4 01232000
Hobart 4 01232000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Sep :
Macquarie Island 9 01253000
Casey 10 2331----
Mawson 14 43332133
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 8 2112 3221
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Sep 7 Quiet
07 Sep 7 Quiet
08 Sep 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were at quiet levels with one
isolated unsettled period (05/0900 UT - 05/1200) in the Australian
region on UT day 05 September. Mostly quiet to active geomagnetic
conditions were observed in the Antarctic region. The disturbed
conditions were mainly due to the prolonged southward IMF Bz
conditions. Global geomagnetic conditions are expected to be
mostly quiet with a chance of isolated unsettled periods during
the next three UT days, 06-08 September.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Sep Normal Normal Normal
07 Sep Normal Normal Normal
08 Sep Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next three UT days, 06-08 September.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Sep -2
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 6
Sep -13
Oct -14
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Sep 0 Near predicted monthly values
07 Sep 0 Near predicted monthly values
08 Sep 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: On UT day 05 September, MUFs in the Australian and Antarctic
regions were near predicted monthly values. Sporadic E and Spread
F were observed over some sites. MUFs in the Australian region
are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values on UT
days 06-08 September.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.4E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.30E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:24%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Sep
Speed: 419 km/sec Density: 4.9 p/cc Temp: 89400 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Bureau of Meteorology
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