[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 04 September 20 issued 2331 UT on 04 Sep 2020

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Sep 5 09:31:28 EST 2020


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 SEPTEMBER 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 05 SEPTEMBER - 07 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Sep:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Sep:  70/5


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             05 Sep             06 Sep             07 Sep
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 04 September. 
There are currently no numbered regions on the visible solar 
disk. Very low levels of solar activity are expected for the 
next three UT days, 05-07 September. Several small filaments 
over the northern hemisphere are monitored for any lift off. 
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph 
imagery. During 04 September, the solar wind speed was gradually 
decreasing from 440 km/s to 390 km/s, currently around 410 km/s. 
The total IMF (Bt) and the north-south IMF component (Bz) varied 
mostly in the ranges 2-5 nT and +4/-5 nT, respectively. The solar 
wind speed is expected to continue decreasing towards its background 
levels over 05-07 September.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 04 Sep : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   21123210
      Cocos Island         3   11112120
      Darwin               5   22122111
      Townsville           6   21123211
      Learmonth            5   21123210
      Alice Springs        5   21123201
      Gingin               5   11123220
      Canberra             5   11123210
      Hobart               7   11134210    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Sep :
      Macquarie Island    11   11135310
      Casey               10   33332211
      Mawson              26   53323363

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Sep : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4   1010 1112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
05 Sep     7    Quiet
06 Sep     7    Quiet
07 Sep     7    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were at quiet levels with one 
isolated unsettled period in the Australian region on UT day 
04 September. Mostly quiet to minor storm levels were observed 
in the Antarctic region. Global geomagnetic conditions are expected 
to be mostly quiet with a chance of isolated unsettled periods 
during the next three UT days, 05-07 September.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
06 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
07 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected 
for the next three UT days, 05-07 September.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
04 Sep    -1

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Aug      6
Sep      -13
Oct      -14

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
05 Sep     0    Near predicted monthly values
06 Sep     0    Near predicted monthly values
07 Sep     0    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: On UT day 04 September, MUFs in the Australian and Antarctic 
regions were near predicted monthly values with mild enhancements 
observed mostly during local night. Sporadic E and Spread F were 
observed over some sites. MUFs in the Australian region are expected 
to be mostly near predicted monthly values on UT days 05-07 September.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 03 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.00E+08   (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:25%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.6

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Sep
Speed: 443 km/sec  Density:    5.4 p/cc  Temp:   128000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of SWS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.




More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list