[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 04 September 20 issued 2331 UT on 04 Sep 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Sep 5 09:31:28 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 SEPTEMBER 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 05 SEPTEMBER - 07 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Sep: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Sep 06 Sep 07 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 04 September.
There are currently no numbered regions on the visible solar
disk. Very low levels of solar activity are expected for the
next three UT days, 05-07 September. Several small filaments
over the northern hemisphere are monitored for any lift off.
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph
imagery. During 04 September, the solar wind speed was gradually
decreasing from 440 km/s to 390 km/s, currently around 410 km/s.
The total IMF (Bt) and the north-south IMF component (Bz) varied
mostly in the ranges 2-5 nT and +4/-5 nT, respectively. The solar
wind speed is expected to continue decreasing towards its background
levels over 05-07 September.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 04 Sep : A K
Australian Region 5 21123210
Cocos Island 3 11112120
Darwin 5 22122111
Townsville 6 21123211
Learmonth 5 21123210
Alice Springs 5 21123201
Gingin 5 11123220
Canberra 5 11123210
Hobart 7 11134210
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Sep :
Macquarie Island 11 11135310
Casey 10 33332211
Mawson 26 53323363
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 1010 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Sep 7 Quiet
06 Sep 7 Quiet
07 Sep 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were at quiet levels with one
isolated unsettled period in the Australian region on UT day
04 September. Mostly quiet to minor storm levels were observed
in the Antarctic region. Global geomagnetic conditions are expected
to be mostly quiet with a chance of isolated unsettled periods
during the next three UT days, 05-07 September.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
06 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
07 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next three UT days, 05-07 September.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Sep -1
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 6
Sep -13
Oct -14
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Sep 0 Near predicted monthly values
06 Sep 0 Near predicted monthly values
07 Sep 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: On UT day 04 September, MUFs in the Australian and Antarctic
regions were near predicted monthly values with mild enhancements
observed mostly during local night. Sporadic E and Spread F were
observed over some sites. MUFs in the Australian region are expected
to be mostly near predicted monthly values on UT days 05-07 September.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.00E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:25%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Sep
Speed: 443 km/sec Density: 5.4 p/cc Temp: 128000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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