[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 03 September 20 issued 2331 UT on 03 Sep 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Sep 4 09:31:30 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 SEPTEMBER 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 04 SEPTEMBER - 06 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Sep: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Sep 05 Sep 06 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 03 September.
There are currently no numbered regions on the visible solar
disk. Very low levels of solar activity are expected for the
next three UT days, 04-06 September. Several small filaments
over the northern hemisphere are monitored for any lift off.
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph
imagery. On 03 September, the solar wind speed gradually decreased
from 470 Km/s, currently around 420 Km/s. The total IMF (Bt)
and the north-south IMF component (Bz) varied mostly in the ranges
2-5 nT and +/-3 nT, respectively. The solar wind speed is expected
to continue decreasing towards its nominal level over 04-06 September.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 03 Sep : A K
Australian Region 2 01111101
Cocos Island 1 00111001
Darwin 2 11101101
Townsville 3 11101112
Learmonth 2 01111101
Alice Springs 1 01101101
Gingin 2 01111101
Canberra 1 00010101
Hobart 1 00110101
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Sep :
Macquarie Island 0 00110000
Casey 8 23331102
Mawson 10 13223204
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10 3332 3212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Sep 7 Mostly Quiet
05 Sep 5 Quiet
06 Sep 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were at quiet levels in the Australian
region on UT day 03 September. Mostly quiet to Unsettled conditions
were observed in the Antarctic region. Global geomagnetic conditions
are expected to be mostly quiet for the next three UT days, 04-06
September with a chance of isolated unsettled periods.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Sep Normal Normal Normal
05 Sep Normal Normal Normal
06 Sep Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next three UT days, 04-06 September.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Sep -13
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available during.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 6
Sep -13
Oct -14
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Sep -10 Near predicted monthly values
05 Sep -10 Near predicted monthly values
06 Sep -10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian and Antarctic regions were near
predicted monthly values on UT day 03 September. Sporadic E and
Spread F were observed over some sites. MUFs in the Australian
region are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values
on UT days 04-06 September.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.60E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:27%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Sep
Speed: 514 km/sec Density: 6.9 p/cc Temp: 163000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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