[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 02 September 20 issued 2331 UT on 02 Sep 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Sep 3 09:31:30 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 SEPTEMBER 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 03 SEPTEMBER - 05 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Sep: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Sep 04 Sep 05 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 02 September.
There are currently no numbered regions on the visible solar
disk. Very low levels of solar activity are expected for the
next three UT days, 03-05 September. H-Alpha imagery observed
filament activity in the NW quadrant between 02/0918 and 02/1425UT.
Weak CME signature observed in LASCO imagery. This will be analysed
for any Earth directed component. No other Earth-directed CMEs
were observed in the available coronagraph imagery. On 02 September,
the solar wind speed remained enhanced but decreasing, currently
around 475 Km/s. The total IMF (Bt) and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) varied mostly in the ranges 2-5 nT and +/-4 nT, respectively.
The solar wind speed is expected to continue decreasing towards
its nominal level over 03-05 September as coronal hole effects
wane.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 02 Sep : A K
Australian Region 8 22233221
Cocos Island 4 12113110
Darwin 8 22233112
Townsville 8 22233221
Learmonth 8 22233221
Alice Springs 8 22233221
Gingin 8 22233221
Canberra 8 12233221
Hobart 8 12233221
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Sep :
Macquarie Island 14 22354211
Casey 12 34333211
Mawson 32 55333346
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 7 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 16 3533 3323
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Sep 10 Quiet to Unsettled
04 Sep 7 Mostly Quiet
05 Sep 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were at quiet to unsettled levels
in the Australian region with isolated storm periods in the Antarctic
region on UT day 02 September. Global geomagnetic conditions
are expected to be mostly quiet for the next three UT days, 03-05
September. Isolated unsettled periods may be observed today,
03 September due to coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Sep Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
04 Sep Normal Normal Normal
05 Sep Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next three UT days, 03-05 September. Some degradations
may be observed in mid to high latitude regions today, 03 September
due to the recent increase in geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Sep -7
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 6
Sep -13
Oct -14
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Sep -10 Near predicted monthly values
04 Sep -5 Near predicted monthly values
05 Sep -5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian and Antarctic regions were near
predicted monthly to mildly enhanced values on UT day 02 September.
Sporadic E was observed over some sites. MUFs in the Australian
region are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values
on UT days 03-05 September. Some degradations may be observed
in mid to high latitude regions today, 03 September due to the
recent increase in geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.10E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:21%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Sep
Speed: 584 km/sec Density: 6.7 p/cc Temp: 367000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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