[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 06 September 20 issued 2331 UT on 06 Sep 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Sep 7 09:31:25 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 SEPTEMBER 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 07 SEPTEMBER - 09 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Sep: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Sep 08 Sep 09 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 06 September.
There are currently no numbered regions on the visible solar
disk. Very low levels of solar activity are expected for the
next three UT days, 07-09 September. Small filaments over the
northern hemisphere are monitored for any lift off. No Earth-directed
CMEs were observed in the coronagraph imagery. During 06 September,
the solar wind speed has returned to its background levels, varying
in the range 360-460 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) and the north-south
IMF component (Bz) varied in the ranges 3-5 nT and +3/-3 nT,
respectively. During the next three UT days, 07-09 September,
the solar wind speed is expected to remain near its background
levels.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 06 Sep : A K
Australian Region 1 11001000
Cocos Island 0 10100000
Darwin 2 21101001
Townsville 3 22111011
Learmonth 0 11000000
Alice Springs 1 11000001
Gingin 0 10000010
Canberra 1 10011000
Hobart 1 10011000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Sep :
Macquarie Island 1 10021000
Mawson 13 32111145
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 6 2223 2011
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Sep 7 Quiet
08 Sep 7 Quiet
09 Sep 7 Quiet
COMMENT: During UT day 06 September, geomagnetic conditions were
quiet in the Australian region and quiet to minor storm in the
Antarctic region. Global geomagnetic conditions are expected
to be mostly quiet with a chance of isolated unsettled periods
during the next three UT days, 07-09 September.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
08 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
09 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next three UT days, 07-09 September.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Sep -7
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 6
Sep -13
Oct -14
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Sep 0 Near predicted monthly values
08 Sep 0 Near predicted monthly values
09 Sep 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: On UT day 06 September, MUFs in the Australian and Antarctic
regions were mostly near predicted monthly values. Mild enhancements
were observed in the Southern Australian region and Antarctica
mostly during local night. Sporadic E and Spread F were observed
over some sites. MUFs in the Australian region are expected to
be mostly near predicted monthly values on UT days 07-09 September.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.6E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:13%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Sep
Speed: 410 km/sec Density: 5.4 p/cc Temp: 120000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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