[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 11 October 20 issued 2331 UT on 11 Oct 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Oct 12 10:31:38 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 OCTOBER 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 12 OCTOBER - 14 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Oct: 73/9
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Oct 13 Oct 14 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 73/9 73/9 73/9
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 11 October. There
are currently two numbered regions on the visible solar disk,
AR2774 and AR2775. Very low levels of solar activity are expected
for the next three UT days, 12-14 October. No CMEs were observed
in the available coronagraph imagery. During 11 October, the
solar wind speed was steady, near its background level. The solar
wind speed range was 280-300 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) varied
mostly in the range 0-6 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was -3/+6 nT. During the next three UT days, 12-14
October, the solar wind speed is expected to remain mostly near
its background levels.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 11 Oct : A K
Australian Region 1 10100001
Cocos Island 1 00110001
Darwin 1 11100001
Townsville 2 10210011
Learmonth 2 11110101
Alice Springs 1 01100001
Gingin 1 10100111
Canberra 0 00100001
Hobart 0 00100001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Oct :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 7 33320011
Mawson 8 11101125
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 0001 0111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Oct 7 Quiet
13 Oct 7 Quiet
14 Oct 7 Quiet
COMMENT: On UT day 11 October, quiet geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Australian region and mostly quiet to unsettled
conditions were observed in the Antarctic region. Global conditions
are expected to be mostly quiet on UT days 12-14 October.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Oct Normal Normal Normal
13 Oct Normal Normal Normal
14 Oct Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next three UT days, 12-14 October.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Oct -7
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep -2
Oct -13
Nov -14
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Oct -10 Near predicted monthly values
13 Oct -10 Near predicted monthly values
14 Oct -10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian and Antarctic regions were mostly
near predicted monthly values on UT day 11 October. Mildly enhanced
MUFs were seen in the Southern Australian region during local
night and after local dawn. MUFs in the Australian region are
expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values on UT days
12-14 October.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Oct
Speed: 296 km/sec Density: 5.2 p/cc Temp: 14500 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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