[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 10 October 20 issued 2331 UT on 10 Oct 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Oct 11 10:31:33 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 OCTOBER 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 11 OCTOBER - 13 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Oct: 74/11
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Oct 12 Oct 13 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 74/11 74/11 74/11
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 10 October. There
are currently two numbered regions on the visible solar disk,
AR2774 and AR2775. Very low levels of solar activity are expected
for the next three UT days, 11-13 October. No CMEs were observed
in the available coronagraph imagery. During 10 October, the
solar wind speed was mostly steady, near its background level.
The solar wind speed range was 280-310 km/s. The total IMF (Bt)
was steady near 4 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range
was -2/+4 nT. During the next three UT days, 11-13 October, the
solar wind speed is expected to remain mostly near its background
levels.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 10 Oct : A K
Australian Region 1 10010101
Cocos Island 1 11100000
Darwin 1 11000001
Townsville 1 10010111
Learmonth 1 11000101
Alice Springs 1 20000001
Gingin 1 10010110
Canberra 0 00010000
Hobart 0 00010100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Oct :
Macquarie Island 0 00020000
Casey 3 22110111
Mawson 3 11101112
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 2 1000 1101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Oct 7 Quiet
12 Oct 7 Quiet
13 Oct 7 Quiet
COMMENT: On UT day 10 October, quiet geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Australian and Antarctic regions. Global conditions
are expected to be mostly quiet on UT days 11-13 October.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Oct Normal Normal Normal
12 Oct Normal Normal Normal
13 Oct Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next three UT days, 11-13 October.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Oct -12
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep -2
Oct -13
Nov -14
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Oct -10 Near predicted monthly values
12 Oct -10 Near predicted monthly values
13 Oct -10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian and Antarctic regions were mostly
near predicted monthly values on UT day 10 October. MUFs in the
Australian region are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly
values on UT days 11-13 October.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Oct
Speed: 315 km/sec Density: 4.2 p/cc Temp: 13600 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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