[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 09 October 20 issued 2331 UT on 09 Oct 2020

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Oct 10 10:31:33 EST 2020


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 OCTOBER 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 10 OCTOBER - 12 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Oct:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Oct:  73/9


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             10 Oct             11 Oct             12 Oct
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    73/9               73/9               73/9

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 09 October. There 
are currently two numbered regions on the visible solar disk, 
AR2774 and AR2775. Very low levels of solar activity are expected 
for the next three UT days, 10-12 October. No CMEs were observed 
in the available coronagraph imagery. During 09 October, the 
solar wind speed parameters were steady. The solar wind speed 
range was 290-330 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) varied mostly in the 
range 1-4 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was 
-2/+3 nT. During the next three UT days, 10-12 October, the solar 
wind speed is expected to remain mostly near its background levels.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Oct: Quiet

Estimated Indices 09 Oct : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11100001
      Cocos Island         0   10100000
      Darwin               2   11100002
      Townsville           1   11100000
      Learmonth            1   11100000
      Alice Springs        1   11100001
      Gingin               0   10100000
      Canberra             0   00100001
      Hobart               0   00100001    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Oct :
      Macquarie Island     0   00100000
      Casey                6   33310000
      Mawson               3   31200001

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Oct : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              3                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              2   1000 1101     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
10 Oct     7    Quiet
11 Oct     7    Quiet
12 Oct     7    Quiet

COMMENT: On UT day 09 October, quiet geomagnetic conditions were 
observed in the Australian region and quiet to unsettled conditions 
were observed in the Antarctic region. Global conditions are 
expected to be mostly quiet on UT days 10-12 October.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
11 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
12 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected 
for the next three UT days, 10-12 October.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
09 Oct   -13

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Sep      -2
Oct      -13
Nov      -14

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
10 Oct   -10    Near predicted monthly values
11 Oct   -10    Near predicted monthly values
12 Oct   -10    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian and Antarctic regions were mostly 
near predicted monthly values on UT day 09 October. MUFs in the 
Australian region are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly 
values on UT days 10-12 October.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 08 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.2E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.80E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Oct
Speed: 357 km/sec  Density:    4.2 p/cc  Temp:    47100 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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