[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 09 October 20 issued 2331 UT on 09 Oct 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Oct 10 10:31:33 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 OCTOBER 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 10 OCTOBER - 12 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Oct: 73/9
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Oct 11 Oct 12 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 73/9 73/9 73/9
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 09 October. There
are currently two numbered regions on the visible solar disk,
AR2774 and AR2775. Very low levels of solar activity are expected
for the next three UT days, 10-12 October. No CMEs were observed
in the available coronagraph imagery. During 09 October, the
solar wind speed parameters were steady. The solar wind speed
range was 290-330 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) varied mostly in the
range 1-4 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was
-2/+3 nT. During the next three UT days, 10-12 October, the solar
wind speed is expected to remain mostly near its background levels.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 09 Oct : A K
Australian Region 1 11100001
Cocos Island 0 10100000
Darwin 2 11100002
Townsville 1 11100000
Learmonth 1 11100000
Alice Springs 1 11100001
Gingin 0 10100000
Canberra 0 00100001
Hobart 0 00100001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Oct :
Macquarie Island 0 00100000
Casey 6 33310000
Mawson 3 31200001
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 1000 1101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Oct 7 Quiet
11 Oct 7 Quiet
12 Oct 7 Quiet
COMMENT: On UT day 09 October, quiet geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Australian region and quiet to unsettled conditions
were observed in the Antarctic region. Global conditions are
expected to be mostly quiet on UT days 10-12 October.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Oct Normal Normal Normal
11 Oct Normal Normal Normal
12 Oct Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next three UT days, 10-12 October.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Oct -13
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep -2
Oct -13
Nov -14
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Oct -10 Near predicted monthly values
11 Oct -10 Near predicted monthly values
12 Oct -10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian and Antarctic regions were mostly
near predicted monthly values on UT day 09 October. MUFs in the
Australian region are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly
values on UT days 10-12 October.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.2E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.80E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Oct
Speed: 357 km/sec Density: 4.2 p/cc Temp: 47100 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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