[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 08 October 20 issued 2331 UT on 08 Oct 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Oct 9 10:31:30 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 OCTOBER 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 09 OCTOBER - 11 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Oct: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Oct 10 Oct 11 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 72/8 72/8
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 08 October. There
are currently no numbered regions on the visible solar disk.
Two unnumbered regions emerged in the SE quadrant, they are monitored
for any development. Very low levels of solar activity are expected
for the next three UT days, 09-11 October. No CMEs were observed
in the available coronagraph imagery. During 08 October, the
solar wind speed decreased from 420 Km/s to 300 km/s. The total
IMF (Bt) varied mostly between 2-5 nT and the north-south IMF
component (Bz) was mostly neutral. During the next three UT days,
09-11 October, the solar wind speed is expected to remain mostly
near its background levels.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 08 Oct : A K
Australian Region 2 12100001
Cocos Island 1 12000000
Darwin 2 11100002
Townsville 2 21110011
Learmonth 2 22100001
Alice Springs 2 22000001
Gingin 2 11100111
Canberra 0 11000000
Hobart 1 12000000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Oct :
Macquarie Island 0 11000000
Casey 7 33320011
Mawson 12 23201135
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 0110 2211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Oct 5 Quiet
10 Oct 5 Quiet
11 Oct 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 08 October. Isolated unsettled and minor storm
levels occurred in the Antarctic region. Global conditions are
expected to be mostly quiet on UT days 09-11 October.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Oct Normal Normal Normal
10 Oct Normal Normal Normal
11 Oct Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next three UT days, 09-11 October.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Oct -14
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep -2
Oct -13
Nov -14
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Oct -10 Near predicted monthly values
10 Oct -10 Near predicted monthly values
11 Oct -10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian and Antarctic regions were mostly
near predicted monthly values on UT day 08 October. MUFs in the
Australian region are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly
values on UT days 09-11 October.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Oct
Speed: 344 km/sec Density: 13.6 p/cc Temp: 37400 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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