[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 07 October 20 issued 2331 UT on 07 Oct 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Oct 8 10:31:31 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 OCTOBER 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 08 OCTOBER - 10 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Oct: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Oct 09 Oct 10 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 71/6 71/6 71/6
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 07 October. There
are currently no numbered regions on the visible solar disk.
Very low levels of solar activity are expected for the next three
UT days, 08-10 October. Weak(faint and narrow) CME activity observed
in LASCO and STEREO images starting 06/1936 UT. This activity
will be further analysed. No other significant CMEs were observed
in the available coronagraph imagery. During 07 October, the
solar wind speed was slightly enhanced, varying in the range
320-400 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) varied mostly between 3-10 nT
and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +/-7 nT. During
the next three UT days, 08-10 October, the solar wind speed is
expected to be mostly near its background levels.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 07 Oct : A K
Australian Region 6 12123211
Cocos Island 4 12113110
Darwin 6 22123102
Townsville 7 22123212
Learmonth 7 12223212
Alice Springs 5 12123201
Gingin 5 12112222
Canberra 4 12112201
Hobart 3 02112201
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Oct :
Macquarie Island 1 01002100
Casey 11 34322122
Mawson 11 22113115
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7 2421 1101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Oct 10 Quiet to Unsettled
09 Oct 5 Quiet
10 Oct 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet to unsettled conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 07 October. Isolated active and minor storm
levels occurred in the Antarctic region. Global conditions are
expected to be mostly quiet on UT days 08-10 October. Possible
isolated unsettled periods today, 08 October as solar wind parameters
are slightly enhanced.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Oct Normal Normal Normal
09 Oct Normal Normal Normal
10 Oct Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next three UT days, 08-10 October.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Oct -11
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep -2
Oct -13
Nov -14
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Oct -10 Near predicted monthly values
09 Oct -10 Near predicted monthly values
10 Oct -10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian and Antarctic regions were mostly
near predicted monthly values on UT day 07 October. Sporadic
E was observed over some sites. MUFs in the Australian region
are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values on UT
days 08-10 October.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.8E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Oct
Speed: 334 km/sec Density: 12.5 p/cc Temp: 18700 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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