[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 12 October 20 issued 2331 UT on 12 Oct 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Oct 13 10:31:36 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 OCTOBER 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 13 OCTOBER - 15 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Oct: 74/11
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Oct 14 Oct 15 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 74/11 74/11 72/8
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 12 October. There
are currently two numbered regions on the visible solar disk,
AR2774 and AR2775. Very low levels of solar activity are expected
for the next three UT days, 13-15 October. No CMEs were observed
in the available coronagraph imagery. During 12 October, the
solar wind speed was steady, near its background level. The solar
wind speed range was 270-300 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) varied
mostly in the range 3-7 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was -6/+5 nT. During the next three UT days, 13-15
October, the solar wind speed is expected to remain mostly near
its background levels.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 12 Oct : A K
Australian Region 3 10112111
Cocos Island 3 11112111
Darwin 3 01112111
Townsville 2 10012111
Learmonth 3 10112211
Alice Springs 2 11002101
Gingin 2 10001112
Canberra 1 00001101
Hobart 1 00101101
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Oct :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 6 23300003
Mawson 11 33011125
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 1 0000 0101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Oct 5 Quiet
14 Oct 5 Quiet
15 Oct 5 Quiet
COMMENT: On UT day 12 October, quiet geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Australian region and mostly quiet to unsettled
conditions were observed in the Antarctic region. Global conditions
are expected to be mostly quiet on UT days 13-15 October.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Oct Normal Normal Normal
14 Oct Normal Normal Normal
15 Oct Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next three UT days, 13-15 October.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Oct -10
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep -2
Oct -13
Nov -14
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Oct -10 Near predicted monthly values
14 Oct -10 Near predicted monthly values
15 Oct -10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian and Antarctic regions were mostly
near predicted monthly values on UT day 12 October. Mild depressed
MUFs were seen in the low latitude Australian region during local
day. MUFs in the Australian region are expected to be mostly
near predicted monthly values on UT days 13-15 October.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Oct
Speed: 293 km/sec Density: 11.1 p/cc Temp: 14100 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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