[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 04 October 20 issued 2331 UT on 04 Oct 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Oct 5 10:31:27 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 OCTOBER 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 05 OCTOBER - 07 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Oct: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Oct 06 Oct 07 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 71/6 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 04 October. No
Earthbound CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph data.
Through UT day 04 October, the solar wind speed showed a gradual
decline from around 400 km/s to 340 km/s, the total IMF (Bt)
stayed between 2 and 3 nT, the IMF north-south component (Bz)
varied in the range +3/-3 nT and the solar wind particle density
varied from around 1 to 3 ppcc. Very low solar activity is expected
for the next three UT days, 05 to 07 October.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 04 Oct : A K
Australian Region 2 11111101
Cocos Island 1 11101100
Darwin 1 11100101
Townsville 3 12111111
Learmonth 2 11101201
Alice Springs 1 11001101
Gingin 2 11012100
Canberra 2 01012100
Hobart 2 11012101
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Oct :
Macquarie Island 1 00011100
Casey 7 23312201
Mawson 9 23102134
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 1222 1101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Oct 5 Quiet
06 Oct 5 Quiet
07 Oct 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 04 October. Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions
with isolated unsettled periods were observed in the Antarctic
region. Global geomagnetic conditions are expected to stay at
quiet levels for the next three UT days, 05 to 07 October.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Oct Normal Normal Normal
06 Oct Normal Normal Normal
07 Oct Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values with
minor enhancements and also minor depressions at some low to
mid latitude locations on UT day 04 October. MUFs are expected
to be near predicted monthly values with the possibility of minor
to mild enhancements on UT days 05 to 07 October.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Oct -10
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep -2
Oct -13
Nov -14
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Oct -5 Near predicted monthly values
06 Oct -2 Near predicted monthly values
07 Oct -2 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region were mostly near predicted
monthly values with minor enhancements and also minor depressions
at some locations on UT day 04 October. MUFs in the Australian
region are expected to be near predicted monthly values with
the possibility of minor to mild enhancements on UT days 05 to
07 October.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.7E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+09 (very high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:31%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Oct
Speed: 441 km/sec Density: 4.9 p/cc Temp: 130000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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