[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 03 October 20 issued 2331 UT on 03 Oct 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Oct 4 10:31:46 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 OCTOBER 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 04 OCTOBER - 06 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Oct: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Oct 05 Oct 06 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 72/8 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 03 October. No
Earthbound CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph data.
Through UT day 03 October, the solar wind speed showed a gradual
decline from around 500 km/s to 400 km/s, the total IMF (Bt)
varied between 3 and 4 nT, the IMF north-south component (Bz)
varied in the range +3/-3 nT and the solar wind particle density
gradually decreased from around 8 to 3 ppcc. Very low solar activity
is expected for the next three UT days, 04 to 06 October. Solar
wind parameters are expected to continue to settle down to nominal
values as the influence of the coronal hole further wanes.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 03 Oct : A K
Australian Region 3 11121111
Cocos Island 2 11110110
Darwin 3 11121111
Townsville 4 11121211
Learmonth 4 21121111
Alice Springs 3 10121111
Gingin 3 21120111
Canberra 2 11120100
Hobart 2 11120110
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Oct :
Macquarie Island 3 10130100
Casey 10 34322121
Mawson 16 42233144
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8 2323 2122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Oct 5 Quiet
05 Oct 5 Quiet
06 Oct 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 03 October. Mostly quiet to unsettled levels
occurred in the Antarctic region with isolated active periods.
Global geomagnetic conditions are expected to be mostly at quiet
levels for the next three UT days, 04 to 06 October.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Oct Normal Normal Normal
05 Oct Normal Normal Normal
06 Oct Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: MUFs were near predicted monthly values on UT day 03
October. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values
on UT days 04 to 06 October.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Oct -16
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep -2
Oct -13
Nov -14
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Oct -8 Near predicted monthly values
05 Oct -8 Near predicted monthly values
06 Oct -8 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region were near predicted monthly
values on UT day 03 October. MUFs in the Australian region are
expected to be near predicted monthly values on UT days 04 to
06 October.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.1E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+09 (very high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:34%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Oct
Speed: 505 km/sec Density: 7.4 p/cc Temp: 310000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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