[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 05 October 20 issued 2331 UT on 05 Oct 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Oct 6 10:31:31 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 OCTOBER 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 06 OCTOBER - 08 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Oct: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Oct 07 Oct 08 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 05 October. There
are currently no numbered regions on the visible solar disk.
Very low levels of solar activity are expected for the next three
UT days, 06-08 October. No CMEs were observed in the available
coronagraph imagery. During 05 October, the solar wind speed
was near its background levels, varying in the range 320-380
km/s. The total IMF (Bt) reached 9 nT and the north-south IMF
component (Bz) range was 3 to -9 nT with a mild sustained southward
Bz between 05/1649UT-05/2125UT. During the next three UT days,
06-08 October, the solar wind speed is expected to remain mostly
near its background levels.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Oct: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 05 Oct : A K
Australian Region 10 11213342
Cocos Island 8 10203341
Darwin 9 12213332
Townsville 11 12223342
Learmonth 10 12213342
Alice Springs 8 11213332
Gingin 12 11213352
Canberra 9 11213341
Hobart 8 01113341
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Oct :
Macquarie Island 12 00024531
Casey 11 22323242
Mawson 27 31212473
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 1101 2101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Oct 12 Quiet to Unsettled
07 Oct 7 Quiet
08 Oct 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet to active conditions were observed in the Australian
region with storm levels occurred in the Antarctic region on
UT day 05 October. These disturbed conditions were in response
to the southward IMF Bz conditions. Global conditions are expected
to be mostly quiet to unsettled today, 06 October. Mostly quiet
conditions are expected on UT days 07-08 October.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Oct Normal Normal Normal
07 Oct Normal Normal Normal
08 Oct Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next three UT days, 06-08 October.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Oct -7
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep -2
Oct -13
Nov -14
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Oct -5 Near predicted monthly values
07 Oct -5 Near predicted monthly values
08 Oct -5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian and Antarctic regions were mostly
near predicted monthly values to slightly enhanced on UT day
05 October. MUFs in the Australian region are expected to be
mostly near predicted monthly values on UT days 06-08 October.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.6E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+09 (very high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:33%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Oct
Speed: 389 km/sec Density: 2.9 p/cc Temp: 92100 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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