[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 14 November 20 issued 2331 UT on 14 Nov 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Nov 15 10:31:34 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 NOVEMBER 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 15 NOVEMBER - 17 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Nov: 80/20
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Nov 16 Nov 17 Nov
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 78/17 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 14 November, with
only B-class flares. There are currently two numbered regions
on the visible disk; 2781(S23W76) and 2782 (S32E23). The regions
2778 and 2779 are expected to return on 15-16 November. No Earthward
directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph images.
Solar activity is expected to be very low for the next three
UT days, 15-17 November. On UT day 14 November, the solar wind
speed was mostly near its nominal levels, in the range of 300
km/s to 370 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) varied mostly between 2
nT and 5 nT and the north-south component of the IMF (Bz) range
was mostly +/-4 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to be near
its nominal levels for the next three UT days, 15-17 November.
Slightly enhanced levels may be observed due to weak coronal
hole effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 14 Nov : A K
Australian Region 1 01101011
Cocos Island 1 10100010
Darwin 1 11100011
Townsville 2 11101021
Learmonth 2 00101021
Alice Springs 0 00100010
Gingin 1 00100021
Canberra 1 01101010
Hobart 2 01202011
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Nov :
Macquarie Island 0 00101000
Casey 7 13321031
Mawson 11 11212253
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 0111 1001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Nov 5 Quiet
16 Nov 5 Quiet
17 Nov 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 14 November. Quiet to unsettled levels were
observed in the Antarctic region. Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions
with isolated unsettled periods are expected for the next three
UT days, 15-17 November.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Nov Normal Normal Normal
16 Nov Normal Normal Normal
17 Nov Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
during the next three UT days, 15-17 November.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Nov -9
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
No data
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct -13
Nov 3
Dec 5
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Nov -5 Near predicted monthly values
16 Nov -5 Near predicted monthly values
17 Nov -5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region were mostly near predicted
monthly values during UT day 14 November. Sporadic E blanketing
and spread F were observed at some sites. MUFs in the Australian
regions are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values
for the next three UT days, 15-17 November.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A9.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Nov
Speed: 383 km/sec Density: 3.7 p/cc Temp: 103000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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