[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 15 November 20 issued 2331 UT on 15 Nov 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Nov 16 10:31:31 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 NOVEMBER 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 16 NOVEMBER - 18 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Nov: 79/19
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Nov 17 Nov 18 Nov
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 72/8 72/8
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 15 November. There
are currently two numbered regions on the visible disk, 2781(S23W90),
and 2782 (S32E10). The region 2779 is expected to return on 16
November. No Earthward directed CMEs were observed in the available
coronagraph images. Solar activity is expected to be very low
to low for the next three UT days, 16-18 November. On UT day
15 November,the solar wind speed was steady, varying in the range
290-320 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) varied mostly between 4 nT and
5 nT and the north-south component of the IMF (Bz) range was
mostly +4/-5 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to be near
its nominal levels for the next three UT days, 16-18 November.
Slightly enhanced levels may be observed due to weak coronal
hole effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 15 Nov : A K
Australian Region 1 11000101
Cocos Island 1 11000100
Darwin 1 11000101
Townsville 2 21001101
Learmonth 1 11001101
Alice Springs 1 11000101
Gingin 2 21000101
Canberra 0 11000000
Hobart 1 21000000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Nov :
Macquarie Island 1 21000000
Casey 10 35211201
Mawson 8 44001211
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 0000 1011
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Nov 7 Quiet
17 Nov 7 Quiet
18 Nov 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 15 November. Mostly quiet to active levels were
observed in the Antarctic region. Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions
with possible unsettled periods are expected for the next three
UT days, 16-18 November.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
17 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
18 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
during the next three UT days, 16-18 November.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Nov -1
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct -13
Nov 3
Dec 5
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Nov 0 Near predicted monthly values
17 Nov 0 Near predicted monthly values
18 Nov 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region were mostly near predicted
monthly values during UT day 15 November. Sporadic E blanketing
and spread F were observed at some sites. MUFs in the Australian
regions are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values
for the next three UT days, 16-18 November.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A9.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Nov
Speed: 330 km/sec Density: 3.5 p/cc Temp: 40100 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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