[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 13 November 20 issued 2331 UT on 13 Nov 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Nov 14 10:31:35 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 NOVEMBER 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 14 NOVEMBER - 16 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Nov: 82/23
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Nov 15 Nov 16 Nov
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 82/23 80/20 78/17
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 13 November. There
are currently three numbered regions on the visible disk, 2780
(N20W89), 2781(S23W63), and 2782 (S32E36). The regions 2778 and
2779 are expected to return on 15-16 November. No Earthward directed
CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph images. Solar
activity is expected to be very low to low for the next three
UT days, 14-16 November. On UT day 13 November,the solar wind
speed was slightly enhanced at the beginning of the UT day; it
reached 440 km/s then gradually decreased to 350 km/s. The total
IMF (Bt) varied mostly between 1 nT and 5 nT and the north-south
component of the IMF (Bz) range was mostly +/-4 nT. The solar
wind speed is expected to be near its nominal levels for the
next three UT days, 14-16 November. Slightly enhanced levels
may be observed due to weak coronal hole effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 13 Nov : A K
Australian Region 2 11101011
Cocos Island 1 10100010
Darwin 1 11100001
Townsville 2 21101011
Learmonth 3 21110012
Alice Springs 1 10100001
Gingin 2 20101011
Canberra 2 10201010
Hobart 2 11211000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Nov :
Macquarie Island 1 10110000
Casey 7 33321011
Mawson 10 23312133
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 1022 0000
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Nov 7 Quiet
15 Nov 7 Quiet
16 Nov 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 13 November. Quiet to unsettled levels were
observed in the Antarctic region. Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions
with possible unsettled periods are expected for the next three
UT days, 14-16 November.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
15 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
16 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
during the next three UT days, 14-16 November.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Nov -11
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct -13
Nov 3
Dec 5
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Nov -5 Near predicted monthly values
15 Nov -5 Near predicted monthly values
16 Nov -5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region were mostly near predicted
monthly values during UT day 13 November. Mild depressions were
seen in the equatorial and Southern Australian regions during
local night. Sporadic E blanketing and spread F were observed
at some sites. MUFs in the Australian regions are expected to
be mostly near predicted monthly values for the next three UT
days, 14-16 November.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Nov
Speed: 390 km/sec Density: 2.9 p/cc Temp: 107000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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