[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 12 November 20 issued 2331 UT on 12 Nov 2020

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Nov 13 10:31:33 EST 2020 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 NOVEMBER 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 13 NOVEMBER - 15 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Nov:  low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Nov:  85/27


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             13 Nov             14 Nov             15 Nov
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    85/27              85/27              85/27

COMMENT: Solar activity was low on UT day 12 November. There 
are currently two numbered regions on the visible disk, 2781((S23W48) 
and 2782 (S32E51). Region 2781 showed further decrease and remained 
quiet while region 2782 increased somehow in area and magnetic 
complexity and produced several low level B-class flares and 
two C-class flares with the largest being a C2.5 flare at 0413UT. 
Several narrow faint CMEs were observed in LASCO-C2 imagery most 
likely associated with the flaring activity from region 2782, 
none is expected to be geoeffective. No other Earthward directed 
CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph images. Solar 
activity is expected to be low for the next three UT days, 13-15 
November with a slight chance of an isolated M-class flare. On 
UT day 12 November,the solar wind speed was slightly enhanced, 
varied between 320-430 Km/s. The total IMF (Bt) varied mostly 
between 2-8 nT and the north-south component of the IMF (Bz) 
range was mostly +/- 3 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to 
be near its nominal levels for the next three UT days, 13-15 
November. Slightly enhanced levels may be observed due to weak 
coronal hole effects.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Nov: Quiet

Estimated Indices 12 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11221011
      Darwin               2   11211100
      Townsville           4   11221121
      Learmonth            3   11221011
      Alice Springs        2   01211010
      Gingin               2   11110011
      Canberra             2   01220011
      Hobart               2   01220011    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Nov :
      Macquarie Island     1   01120000
      Casey               17   35521122
      Mawson               8   32212014

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Nov : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              3   0000 1112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
13 Nov     8    Quiet to Unsettled
14 Nov     8    Quiet to Unsettled
15 Nov     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian 
region on UT day 12 November. Active levels observed in Antarctic 
region. Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions are expected for 
the next three UT days, 13-15 November with possible Unsettled 
periods.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
14 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
15 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected 
during the next three UT days, 13-15 November.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
12 Nov    -5

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Oct      -13
Nov      3
Dec      5

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
13 Nov     0    Near predicted monthly values
14 Nov     0    Near predicted monthly values
15 Nov     0    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region were near predicted monthly 
values on UT day 12 November. Sporadic E blanketing and spread 
F were observed at some sites. MUFs in the Australian regions 
are expected to be near predicted monthly values for the next 
three UT days, 13-15 November.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 11 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.2E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.80E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.5

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Nov
Speed: 324 km/sec  Density:    7.7 p/cc  Temp:    18200 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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