[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 25 May 20 issued 2331 UT on 25 May 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue May 26 09:31:28 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 MAY 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 26 MAY - 28 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 May: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 May 27 May 28 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 25 May. Very low
levels of solar activity are expected 26 to 28 May. The visible
disc is spotless. No returning regions expected. No Earthward
directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph images.
During UT day 25 May, the solar wind speed varied in the range
320 to 345 km/s, the total IMF (Bt) between 3 and 7 nT and the
north-south IMF component (Bz) between -4 and +5 nT. The solar
wind particle density varied in the range 3 to 16 ppcc through
this day. Solar wind parameters are expected to remain mostly
at normal levels for the next 3 UT days with small possibility
of minor strengthening on 26 May due to a possible minor coronal
hole effect.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 25 May : A K
Australian Region 3 12211101
Cocos Island 3 12211101
Darwin 3 12211101
Townsville 4 12212101
Learmonth 3 11221101
Alice Springs 3 12211100
Gingin 2 11111001
Canberra 1 01201000
Hobart 2 11211100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 May :
Macquarie Island 0 00110000
Casey 5 23211101
Mawson 15 43322205
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 May : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 May : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 1000 2322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 May 6 Mostly quiet with small possibility of isolated
unsettled periods
27 May 4 Quiet
28 May 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were
quiet on UT day 25 May and mostly quiet to unsettled in the Antarctic
region, with one period of active conditions and one period of
minor storm recorded on one station in the Antarctic. Global
geomagnetic activity is expected to stay mostly at quiet levels
for the next three UT days, 26 to 28 May with small possibility
of isolated unsettled conditions on 26 May due to a possible
minor coronal hole effect.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 May Normal Normal Normal
27 May Normal Normal Normal
28 May Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted values to moderately
enhanced on UT day 25 May. MUFs are expected to stay mostly at
normal levels for the next three UT days, 26 to 28 May.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 May 12
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 60% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 100% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 1
May -13
Jun -13
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 May 0 Near predicted monthly values
27 May 0 Near predicted monthly values
28 May 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted values to moderately
enhanced in the Australian region on UT day 25 May. MUFs in the
Australian region are expected to stay mostly at normal levels
for the next three UT days, 26 to 28 May.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 May
Speed: 333 km/sec Density: 7.5 p/cc Temp: 17200 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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