[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 24 May 20 issued 2331 UT on 24 May 2020

Mon May 25 09:31:28 EST 2020

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 MAY 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 25 MAY - 27 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 May:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 May:  69/3

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             25 May             26 May             27 May
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 24 May. Very low 
levels of solar activity are expected 25 to 27 May. The visible 
disc is spotless. No returning regions expected. No Earthward 
directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph images 
although LASCO images show a CME at 0724 UT to the east and confirmed 
by STEREO A moving away from Earth. The solar wind speed has 
been below 350 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) and north-south IMF component 
(Bz) ranged between 1 to 7 nT and -7 to 5 nT, respectively. Solar 
wind parameters are expected to be mildly disturbed 25 to 26 
May due to coronal hole effects.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 May: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 24 May : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   00112311
      Cocos Island         3   11111300
      Darwin               4   01112311
      Townsville           5   11112311
      Learmonth            4   10112310
      Alice Springs        4   00112311
      Gingin               3   00002320
      Canberra             3   00002310
      Hobart               4   00112311    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 May :
      Macquarie Island     1   00001210
      Casey                4   11101321
      Mawson              13   22001354

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5   2310 1111     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
25 May     8    Quiet to Unsettled
26 May     8    Quiet to Unsettled
27 May     7    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian and Antarctic 
regions were mostly quiet to unsettled. Mostly quiet to settled 
conditions expected 25 to 26 May due to coronal hole effects. 
Active periods possible at high latitudes on 25 May.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 May      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 May      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
26 May      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
27 May      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal to fair HF conditions are expected for 
the next three UT days, 25 to 27 May. Sporadic E and spread F 
may degrade conditions.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
24 May     1

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Apr      1
May      -13
Jun      -13

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
25 May     0    Near predicted monthly values
26 May     0    Near predicted monthly values
27 May     0    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted to enhanced in the Australian 
region on UT day 24 May. Sporadic E observed at Cocos Is. 09-12 
UT. Night spread F present at all stations except Niue. Sporadic 
E and spread F occurrences expected to continue with MUFs mostly 
near predicted monthly values, 25 to 27 May.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 23 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.2E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 May
Speed: 349 km/sec  Density:    3.2 p/cc  Temp:    35900 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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