[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 26 May 20 issued 2331 UT on 26 May 2020

Wed May 27 09:31:20 EST 2020

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 MAY 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 27 MAY - 29 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 May:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 May:  70/5

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             27 May             28 May             29 May
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 26 May. Very low 
levels of solar activity are expected for the next three UT days, 
27 to 29 May. The visible disc is spotless. No returning regions 
expected. No Earthward directed CMEs were observed in the available 
coronagraph images. During UT day 26 May, the solar wind speed 
varied in the range 300 to 325 km/s, the total IMF (Bt) between 
2 and 5 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) between -3 
and +3 nT. The solar wind particle density varied mostly in the 
range 4 to 10 ppcc through this day. Solar wind parameters are 
expected to remain mostly at normal levels for the next 3 UT 
days with small possibility of minor strengthening on 29 May 
due to a possible minor coronal hole effect.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 May: Quiet

Estimated Indices 26 May : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11110000
      Cocos Island         0   11000000
      Darwin               1   11110001
      Townsville           1   11110001
      Learmonth            2   11120000
      Alice Springs        1   11110000
      Gingin               1   11110010
      Canberra             1   11010000
      Hobart               2   11120110    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 May :
      Macquarie Island     0   00020000
      Casey                3   22210110
      Mawson               9   21210044

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              6   2211 2112     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
27 May     4    Quiet
28 May     4    Quiet
29 May     7    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were 
quiet on UT day 26 May and mostly quiet in the Antarctic region, 
with two period of active conditions recorded on one Antarctic 
station. Global geomagnetic activity is expected to stay mostly 
at quiet levels for the next three UT days, 27 to 29 May with 
some possibility of unsettled conditions on 29 May due to a possible 
minor coronal hole effect.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 May      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
28 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
29 May      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted values with mild to 
moderate enhancements on UT day 26 May. MUFs are expected to 
stay mostly at normal levels for the next three UT days, 27 to 
29 May.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
26 May     5

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 70% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Apr      1
May      -13
Jun      -13

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
27 May     2    Near predicted monthly values
28 May     2    Near predicted monthly values
29 May     0    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted values with mild to 
moderate enhancements in the Australian region on UT day 26 May. 
MUFs in the Australian region are expected to stay mostly at 
normal levels for the next three UT days, 27 to 29 May.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 25 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.4E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 May
Speed: 320 km/sec  Density:    9.2 p/cc  Temp:    25100 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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