[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 20 May 20 issued 2331 UT on 20 May 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu May 21 09:31:24 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 MAY 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 21 MAY - 23 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 May: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 May 22 May 23 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 20 May. The visible
disc currently has no numbered sunspot regions. Very low levels
of solar activity are expected for the next three UT days, 21
to 23 May. No Earthward directed CMEs were observed in the available
coronagraph images. On UT day 20 May, the solar wind speed was
near its nominal to mildly elevated levels, varying in the range
350 to 420 km/s. These mild enhancements are in response to a
small equatorial coronal hole reaching geoeffective location
on the solar disk. The total IMF (Bt) was mostly steady near
4 nT. The north-south IMF component (Bz) varied between -2 nT
and 2 nT, with no significant southward IMF Bz conditions. The
solar wind is expected to remain at nominal to mild levels for
next two UT days (21 and 22 May) as another small southern coronal
hole may be becoming geoeffective.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 20 May : A K
Australian Region 0 10000000
Cocos Island 0 11000000
Darwin 0 11000000
Townsville 0 10000001
Learmonth 0 00000000
Alice Springs 0 00000000
Gingin 0 00000000
Canberra 0 00000000
Hobart 0 10000000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 May :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 1 11000001
Mawson 4 32000003
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 May : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 May : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5 1022 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 May 7 Quiet
22 May 7 Quiet
23 May 7 Quiet
COMMENT: On UT day 20 May, the geomagnetic conditions in the
Australian and Antarctic regions were at quiet levels. Mostly
quiet and occasional unsettled conditions are expected for the
next three UT days, 21-23 May.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 May Normal Normal Normal
22 May Normal Normal Normal
23 May Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for the next
three UT days, 21 to 23 May.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 May -2
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 1
May -13
Jun -13
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 May 0 Near predicted monthly values
22 May 0 Near predicted monthly values
23 May 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly at near predicted to mildly enhanced
levels in the Australian and Antarctic regions during UT day
20 May. Occurrences of sporadic E were observed over some Australian
stations. Mostly normal MUFs are expected for the next three
UT days, 21 to 23 May.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.5E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 May
Speed: 377 km/sec Density: 6.6 p/cc Temp: 62900 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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