[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 19 May 20 issued 2331 UT on 19 May 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed May 20 09:31:25 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 MAY 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 20 MAY - 22 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 May: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 May 21 May 22 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 19 May. The visible
disc currently has no numbered sunspot regions. Very low levels
of solar activity are expected for the next three UT days, 20
to 22 May. No Earthward directed CMEs were observed in the available
coronagraph images. On UT day 19 May, the solar wind speed was
near its nominal to mildly elevated levels, varying in the range
350 to 400 km/s. These mild enhancements are in response to a
small equatorial coronal hole reaching geoeffective location
on the solar disk. The total IMF (Bt) varied in the range of
2 to 8 nT. The north-south IMF component (Bz) varied between
-6 nT and 4 nT, and was predominantly southward from 19/0400
UT to 19/1230 UT. The solar wind is expected to remain at nominal
to mild levels for today, UT day 20 May. Nominal to mild solar
wind conditions are expected on UT days 21 and 22 May as another
southern coronal hole may be becoming geoeffective.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 19 May : A K
Australian Region 2 11121000
Cocos Island 1 11111000
Darwin 2 11121001
Townsville 3 11122001
Learmonth 3 21222000
Alice Springs 2 01121000
Gingin 2 10211000
Canberra 2 10121000
Hobart 3 11222010
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 May :
Macquarie Island 3 00222010
Casey 5 22321001
Mawson 11 23233104
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 May : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 May : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4 1000 1221
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 May 7 Quiet
21 May 7 Quiet
22 May 7 Quiet
COMMENT: On UT day 19 May, the geomagnetic conditions in the
Australian region was at quiet levels. The Antarctic region experienced
quiet to unsettled conditions due to the mild coronal hole effect.
Mostly quiet and occasional unsettled conditions are expected
for the next three UT days, 20-22 May.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 May Normal Normal Normal
21 May Normal Normal Normal
22 May Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for the next
three UT days, 19 to 21 May.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 May 7
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 105% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 55% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 1
May -13
Jun -13
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 May 5 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
21 May 5 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
22 May 5 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly at near predicted to moderately enhanced
levels in the Australian region during UT day 19 May. Occurrences
of sporadic E were observed over some Australian stations. Mostly
normal MUFs are expected for the next three UT days, 20 to 22
May.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 May
Speed: 311 km/sec Density: 6.7 p/cc Temp: 19700 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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