[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 18 May 20 issued 2331 UT on 18 May 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue May 19 09:31:27 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 MAY 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 19 MAY - 21 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 May: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 May 20 May 21 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 18 May. The visible
disc is currently spotless in white light. Active regions 2760
and 2763 are expected to return to visible solar disk. These
regions produced no significant flares during the previous solar
rotation. Very low levels of solar activity are expected for
the next three UT days, 19 to 21 May. No Earthward directed CMEs
were observed in the available coronagraph images. On UT day
18 May, the solar wind speed was near its background levels,
varying in the range 300 to 350 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) and
the north-south IMF component (Bz) varied in the ranges 3 to
6 nT and +6/-4 nT, respectively. The solar wind is expected to
enhance to moderate levels today (UT day 19 May) and remain at
these moderate levels on UT day 20 May. These forecasted mild
enhancements in solar wind conditions are due to a small equatorial
coronal hole reaching geoeffective location on the solar disk.
Nominal solar wind conditions are expected on UT day 21 May.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 18 May : A K
Australian Region 1 00000220
Cocos Island 2 10000220
Darwin 2 10100221
Townsville 2 01001211
Learmonth 2 10000220
Alice Springs 1 00000210
Gingin 1 00000220
Canberra 0 00000110
Hobart 1 00001111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 May :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 2 11000120
Mawson 5 30000132
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 May : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 May : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 0001 1102
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 May 8 Quiet to Unsettled
20 May 7 Quiet
21 May 7 Quiet
COMMENT: On UT day 18 May, the geomagnetic conditions in the
Australian and the Antarctic regions were at quiet levels. Quiet
to unsettled conditions are expected for UT day 19 May in response
to the possible arrival of the coronal hole effects. Mostly Quiet
and occasional unsettled conditions are expected on UT day 20
and 21 May.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
20 May Normal Normal Normal
21 May Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for the next
three UT days, 19 to 21 May.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 May 4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 60% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 1
May -13
Jun -13
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 May 0 Near predicted monthly values
20 May 0 Near predicted monthly values
21 May 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly at near predicted values to moderately
enhanced levels in the Australian region during UT day 18 May.
Occurrences of sporadic E were observed over some Australian
stations. Mostly normal MUFs are expected for the next three
UT days, 19 to 21 May, in the Australian region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 May
Speed: 306 km/sec Density: 7.2 p/cc Temp: 18400 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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