[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 17 May 20 issued 2331 UT on 17 May 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon May 18 09:31:30 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 MAY 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 18 MAY - 20 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 May: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 May 19 May 20 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 17 May. The visible
disc was spotless. Very low levels of solar activity are expected
for the next three UT days, 18 to 20 May. No Earthward directed
CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph images. On UT
day 17 May, the solar wind speed was near its background values,
varying in the range 290 to 320 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) and
the north-south IMF component (Bz) varied in the ranges 2 to
5 nT and +4/-3 nT, respectively and the solar wind particle density
varied mostly in the range 4 to 9 ppcc. The solar wind is expected
to stay at nominal levels for most parts of UT day 18 May and
show minor to mild enhancements from late hours of this day.
These minor/mild enhancements in solar wind parameters may continue
throughout the UT day 19 May and then return to nominal values
through UT day 20 May.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 17 May : A K
Australian Region 0 00000100
Cocos Island 0 00000000
Darwin 0 10000100
Townsville 1 11000101
Learmonth 0 00000100
Alice Springs 0 10000100
Gingin 0 00000100
Canberra 0 00000100
Hobart 1 01010100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 May :
Macquarie Island 0 00010000
Casey 1 11000110
Mawson 1 11000011
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 May : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 May : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 1010 2211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 May 6 Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible
during late hours
19 May 8 Quiet to Unsettled
20 May 6 Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible
COMMENT: On UT day 17 May, the geomagnetic conditions in the
Australian and the Antarctic regions were at quiet levels. Mostly
quiet global geomagnetic conditions may be expected for UT days
18 and 20 May with isolated unsettled periods. Quiet to unsettled
conditions are expected for UT day 19 May. These minor/mild enhancements
in geomagnetic activity are expected due to possible coronal
hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 May Normal Normal Normal
19 May Normal Normal Normal
20 May Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly at near predicted values to moderately
enhanced levels during UT day 17 May. Mostly normal MUFs are
expected for the next three UT days, 18 to 20 May.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 May -0
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 1
May -13
Jun -13
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 May 0 Near predicted monthly values
19 May -2 Near predicted monthly values
20 May 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly at near predicted values to moderately
enhanced levels in the Australian region during UT day 17 May.
Occurrences of sporadic E were observed over some Australian
stations. Mostly normal MUFs are expected for the next three
UT days, 18 to 20 May, in the Australian region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+06
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 May
Speed: 312 km/sec Density: 4.2 p/cc Temp: 21800 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
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