[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 16 May 20 issued 2331 UT on 16 May 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun May 17 09:31:24 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 MAY 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 17 MAY - 19 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 May: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 May 18 May 19 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 16 May. The visible
disc was spotless. Very low levels of solar activity are expected
for the next three UT days, 17 to 19 May. No Earthward directed
CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph images. On UT
day 16 May, the solar wind speed was near its background values,
varying in the range 295 to 330 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) and
the north-south IMF component (Bz) varied in the ranges 2 to
5 nT and +4/-3 nT, respectively and the solar wind particle density
varied mostly in the range 2 to 7 ppcc. The solar wind is expected
to stay at nominal levels for the next two UT days (17 and 18
May) with some possibility of minor enhancements late on 18 May.
Minor to mild enhancements in solar wind parameter may be expected
on UT day 19 May.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 16 May : A K
Australian Region 2 11002101
Cocos Island 1 11011100
Darwin 2 11002101
Townsville 2 11002102
Learmonth 2 01102200
Alice Springs 1 00002101
Gingin 1 00002100
Canberra 1 10002100
Hobart 1 10002100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 May :
Macquarie Island 0 00001100
Casey 2 01112200
Mawson 3 01111103
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 May : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 May : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 1122 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 May 4 Quiet
18 May 6 Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled conditions possible
19 May 8 Quiet with some unsettled conditions
COMMENT: On UT day 16 May, the geomagnetic conditions in the
Australian and the Antarctic regions were at quiet levels with
one period of unsettled conditions recorded at the Antarctic
station Mawson. Mostly quiet global geomagnetic conditions may
be expected for the next two UT days (17 and 18 May) with a small
possibility of isolated unsettled periods from late on 18 May
due to possible coronal hole effects. Quiet to unsettled conditions
may be expected for UT day 19 May.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 May Normal Normal Normal
18 May Normal Normal Normal
19 May Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly at near predicted values to moderately
enhanced levels during UT day 16 May. Normal MUFs are expected
for the next three UT days, 17 to 19 May.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 May -1
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 1
May -13
Jun -13
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 May 0 Near predicted monthly values
18 May 0 Near predicted monthly values
19 May -2 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly at near predicted values to moderately
enhanced levels in the Australian region during UT day 16 May.
Occurrences of sporadic E were observed over some Australian
stations. Normal MUFs are expected for the next three UT days,
17 to 19 May, in the Australian region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.2E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 May
Speed: 307 km/sec Density: 5.5 p/cc Temp: 19900 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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