[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 15 May 20 issued 2331 UT on 15 May 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat May 16 09:31:31 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 MAY 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 16 MAY - 18 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 May: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 May 17 May 18 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 15 May. The visible
disc was spotless. Very low levels of solar activity are expected
for the next three UT days, 16 to 18 May. No Earthward directed
CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph images. On UT
day 15 May, the solar wind speed was near its background values,
varying in the range 300-330 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) and the
north-south IMF component (Bz) varied in the ranges 1 to 8 nT
and +5/-3 nT, respectively and the solar wind particle density
varied mostly in the range 2 to 10 ppcc, but reached up to 30
ppcc at 07:29UT. The solar wind is expected to stay at nominal
levels for the next three UT days (16 to 18 May) with some possibility
of minor enhancements late on 18 May.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 15 May : A K
Australian Region 2 01220000
Cocos Island 2 01220000
Darwin 2 11220000
Townsville 3 12220001
Learmonth 3 01320000
Alice Springs 2 01220000
Gingin 1 00220000
Canberra 2 01220000
Hobart 1 01111000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 May :
Macquarie Island 0 00001000
Casey 3 12220000
Mawson 3 22220000
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 May : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 May : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 2 1001 1101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 May 4 Quiet
17 May 4 Quiet
18 May 6 Mostly quiet, small chance of isolated unsettled
conditions
COMMENT: On UT day 15 May, the geomagnetic conditions in the
Australian and the Antarctic regions were at quiet levels. Mostly
quiet global geomagnetic conditions may be expected for the next
three UT days (16 to 18 May) with a small possibility of isolated
unsettled periods late on 18 May due to possible coronal hole
effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 May Normal Normal Normal
17 May Normal Normal Normal
18 May Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly at near predicted values to moderately
enhanced levels during UT day 15 May. Normal MUFs are expected
for the next three UT days, 16 to 18 May.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 May -4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 1
May -13
Jun -13
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 May 0 Near predicted monthly values
17 May 0 Near predicted monthly values
18 May 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly at near predicted values to moderately
enhanced levels in the Australian region during UT day 15 May.
Occurrences of sporadic E were observed over some Australian
stations. Normal MUFs are expected for the next three UT days,
16 to 18 May, in the Australian region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.3E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 May
Speed: 297 km/sec Density: 12.3 p/cc Temp: 14400 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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