[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 14 May 20 issued 2331 UT on 14 May 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri May 15 09:31:24 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 MAY 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 15 MAY - 17 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 May: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 May 16 May 17 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low on UT day 14 May. The visible
disc was spotless. Very Low levels of solar activity are expected
for the next three UT days, 15-17 May. No Earthward directed
CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph images. On UT
day 14 May, the solar wind speed was near its background values,
varying in the range 280-310 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) and the
north-south IMF component (Bz) varied in the ranges 1-4 nT and
+/-3 nT, respectively. The solar wind may experience a moderate
enhancement on UT day 15 May due to coronal hole effects, returning
to background values on 16-17 May.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 14 May : A K
Australian Region 0 01100000
Cocos Island 0 00100000
Darwin 1 11100000
Townsville 1 11001001
Learmonth 0 00100000
Alice Springs 0 00100000
Gingin 0 01000000
Canberra 0 00000000
Hobart 0 01000000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 May :
Macquarie Island 0 00010000
Casey 2 12200000
Mawson 4 32200012
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 May : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 May : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 2101 1211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 May 7 Quiet to Unsettled
16 May 5 Quiet
17 May 5 Quiet
COMMENT: On UT day 14 May, the geomagnetic conditions in the
Australian region were at Quiet levels. The Antarctic region
observed mainly Quiet levels, with Mawson station observing an
isolated Unsettled period. Global geomagnetic conditions may
increase to Quiet to Unsettled levels on UT day 15 May, due to
coronal hole effects, returning to mainly Quiet levels on UT
days 16-17 May.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 May Normal Normal Normal
16 May Normal Normal Normal
17 May Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation are expected for the next
three UT days, 15-17 May.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 May -3
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 75% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 1
May -13
Jun -13
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 May 0 Near predicted monthly values
16 May 0 Near predicted monthly values
17 May 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly at near predicted values to moderately
enhanced levels in the Australian region during UT day 14 May.
Occurrences of sporadic E were observed over some Australian
stations. Normal MUFs are expected for the next three UT days,
15-17 May, in the Australian region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.7E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 May
Speed: 307 km/sec Density: 11.2 p/cc Temp: 13800 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
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