[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 13 May 20 issued 2331 UT on 13 May 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu May 14 09:31:27 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 MAY 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 14 MAY - 16 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 May: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 May 15 May 16 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low on UT day 13 May. The visible
disc was spotless. Very Low levels of solar activity are expected
for the next three UT days, 14-16 May. No Earthward directed
CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph images. On UT
day 13 May, the solar wind speed was near its background values,
varying in the range 290-330 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) and the
north-south IMF component (Bz) varied in the ranges 1-5 nT and
-3/+2 nT, respectively. The solar wind may experience a moderate
enhancement on UT days 14-15 May due to coronal hole effects,
returning to background values by 16 May.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 13 May : A K
Australian Region 2 10011200
Cocos Island 1 10100100
Darwin 1 10011100
Townsville 3 11111201
Learmonth 1 10010200
Alice Springs 1 10000200
Gingin 1 10000200
Canberra 1 00011100
Hobart 3 11021210
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 May :
Macquarie Island 1 00021100
Casey 4 22111210
Mawson 12 42101125
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 May : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 May : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4 1001 1212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 May 8 Quiet to Unsettled, with chance of an isolated
Active period
15 May 7 Quiet to Unsettled
16 May 5 Quiet
COMMENT: On UT day 13 May, the geomagnetic conditions in the
Australian region were at Quiet levels. The Antarctic region
observed mainly Quiet levels, with Mawson station observing isolated
Active to Minor Storm periods. Global geomagnetic conditions
may increase to Quiet to Unsettled levels on UT days 14-15 May,
with a chance of an isolated Active period on UT day 14 May,
due to coronal hole effects, returning to mainly Quiet levels
on UT day 16 May.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
15 May Normal Normal Normal
16 May Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation are expected for the next
three UT days, 14-16 May.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 May -3
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 1
May -13
Jun -13
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 May 0 Near predicted monthly values
15 May 0 Near predicted monthly values
16 May 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly at near predicted values to moderately
enhanced levels in the Australian region during UT day 13 May.
Occurrences of sporadic E were observed over some Australian
stations. Normal MUFs are expected for the next three UT days,
14-16 May, in the Australian region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.6E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 May
Speed: 310 km/sec Density: 8.6 p/cc Temp: 16300 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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