[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 21 May 20 issued 2331 UT on 21 May 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri May 22 09:31:17 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 MAY 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 22 MAY - 24 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 May: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 May 23 May 24 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 21 May. The visible
disc currently has no numbered sunspot regions. Very low levels
of solar activity are expected for the next three UT days, 22
to 24 May. No Earthward directed CMEs were observed in the available
coronagraph images. On UT day 21 May, the solar wind speed was
near its nominal levels, varying in the range 320 to 360 km/s.
The total IMF (Bt) and north-south IMF component (Bz) varied
in the range of 1 to 5 nT and -5 to 2 nT, respectively. The solar
wind is expected to remain at nominal to mild levels for next
two UT days (22 and 23 May) as a small southern coronal hole
may be becoming geoeffective. Mostly nominal solar wind conditions
are expected on UT day 24 May.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 21 May : A K
Australian Region 2 02110110
Cocos Island 1 11010110
Darwin 1 01110110
Townsville 2 12110110
Learmonth 1 01110110
Alice Springs 2 02100110
Gingin 2 01100120
Canberra 2 02100110
Hobart 2 02111110
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 May :
Macquarie Island 0 00110000
Casey 4 22111211
Mawson 8 23222213
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 May : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 May : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 2100 0111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 May 7 Quiet
23 May 7 Quiet
24 May 7 Quiet
COMMENT: On UT day 21 May, the geomagnetic conditions in the
Australian and Antarctic regions were at quiet levels. Mostly
quiet and occasional unsettled conditions are expected for the
next three UT days, 22-24 May.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 May Normal Normal Normal
23 May Normal Normal Normal
24 May Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for the next
three UT days, 22 to 24 May.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 May 2
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 60% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 1
May -13
Jun -13
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 May 0 Near predicted monthly values
23 May 0 Near predicted monthly values
24 May 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly at near predicted to mildly enhanced
levels in the Australian and Antarctic regions during UT day
21 May. Occurrences of sporadic E were observed over some Australian
stations. Mostly normal MUFs are expected for the next three
UT days, 22 to 24 May.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.6E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 May
Speed: 381 km/sec Density: 2.6 p/cc Temp: 55800 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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