[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 02 May 20 issued 2331 UT on 02 May 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun May 3 09:31:20 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 MAY 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 03 MAY - 05 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 May: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 May 04 May 05 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 02 May. Currently,
the visible disc is spotless. No Earth-bound CMEs were observed
in the available LASCO and STEREO images. Very low levels of
solar activity are expected for the next three UT days, 03-05
May. During UT day 02 May, the solar wind speed varied mostly
between 300-340 km/s with two jumps up to 450 Km/s at 02/0730UT
and 02/1240UT. The total IMF (Bt) varied in the range 2-6 nT
and the north-south IMF component (Bz) was between -5 and +4
nT. The solar wind speed is expected to be at background to slightly
enhanced levels for the next three UT days, 03-05 May due to
small patchy coronal holes influences.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 02 May : A K
Australian Region 2 11111101
Cocos Island 1 01111000
Darwin 3 21121101
Townsville 4 11221112
Learmonth 3 12221100
Alice Springs 2 01211101
Gingin 1 02110000
Canberra 1 01111100
Hobart 2 11111100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 May :
Macquarie Island 1 00112000
Casey 5 23221100
Mawson 11 13221125
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 May : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 May : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 0 1 2 2 2 2 1 1
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 May 10 Quiet to Unsettled
04 May 12 Quiet to Unsettled
05 May 7 Mostly Quiet
COMMENT: On UT day 02 May, the geomagnetic activity in the Australian
region was at Quiet levels. The Antarctic region observed mostly
Quiet to Unsettled conditions. Global geomagnetic activity is
expected to be mostly at Quiet levels for the next three UT days,
03-05 May, with possible Unsettled periods due to weak coronal
hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 May Normal Normal Normal
04 May Normal Normal Normal
05 May Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for the next
three UT days, 03-05 May.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 May -0
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 1
May -13
Jun -13
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 May 0 Near predicted monthly values
04 May 0 Near predicted monthly values
05 May 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were mainly near predicted
monthly values for all regions with periods of minor to moderate
enhancements on UT day 02 May. Sporadic E layers were observed
over some sites. Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are
expected in the Australian regions for the next three UT days,
03-05 May.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.6e+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.6e+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50e+06
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 May
Speed: 302 km/sec Density: 7.4 p/cc Temp: 23500 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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