[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 01 May 20 issued 2331 UT on 01 May 2020

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat May 2 09:31:28 EST 2020 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 MAY 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 02 MAY - 04 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 May:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 May:  70/5


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             02 May             03 May             04 May
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 01 May. Currently, 
the visible disc has three numbered regions, very small, magnetically 
simple and fading; 2760(S08W43),2762(N24W72) and 2763(N24E09). 
Region 2762 produced a B2.6 flare at 1436UT. No Earth-bound CMEs 
were observed in the available LASCO and STEREO images. Very 
low levels of solar activity are expected for the next three 
UT days, 02-04 May. During UT day 01 May, the solar wind speed 
remained under 320 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) varied in the range 
3-8 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) was between -6 
and +4 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to stay mostly near 
its background values for the next three UT days, 02-04 May, 
with the possibility of occasional slight strengthenings due 
to small patchy coronal holes influences.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 May: Quiet

Estimated Indices 01 May : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   12222101
      Cocos Island         2   02111000
      Darwin               3   11212101
      Townsville           4   12222101
      Learmonth            4   12222100
      Alice Springs        2   02112100
      Gingin               3   11222100
      Canberra             4   01222201
      Hobart               4   11222201    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 May :
      Macquarie Island     5   01323200
      Casey                4   13221100
      Mawson               6   02332111

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              2   0100 0001     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
02 May     5    Quiet
03 May    10    Quiet to Unsettled
04 May    12    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: On UT day 01 May, the geomagnetic activity in the Australian 
region was at Quiet levels. The Antarctic region observed Quiet 
to Unsettled conditions. Global geomagnetic activity is expected 
to stay mostly at Quiet levels for the next three UT days, 02-04 
May, with possible Unsettled periods due to weak coronal hole 
effects.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 May      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
03 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
04 May      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for the next 
three UT days, 02-04 May.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
01 May     0

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
       Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Apr      1
May      -13
Jun      -13

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
02 May     0    Near predicted monthly values
03 May     0    Near predicted monthly values
04 May     0    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were mainly near predicted 
monthly values with periods of minor to moderate enhancements 
on UT day 01 May. Sporadic E layers were observed over some sites. 
Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected in the Australian 
regions for the next three UT days, 02-04 May.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 30 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.5E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.3

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Apr
Speed: 285 km/sec  Density:    3.5 p/cc  Temp:     9460 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of SWS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.

More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list